D-day looms for Turnbull, ETS

The future of Malcolm Turnbull's leadership and the government's emissions trading
scheme may well be decided on Tuesday after five weeks of uncertainty

Two crucial votes, one in the coalition party room, and one expected in the Senate
this week possibly as early as Tuesday, hold the key to Mr Turnbull's grip on the
helm of the party and the shape of the nation's action on climate change.
As 200 green protesters blockaded Parliament House, inside Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
warned the opposition a negotiated deal would be on the table for this week only.
Meetings over opposition changes to emissions trading scheme legislation were
continuing as late as Monday night ahead of the crucial shadow cabinet and party
room meetings on Tuesday.
Mr Turnbull continues to be dogged by leadership speculation, with Liberal
backbencher and former Howard minister Kevin Andrews saying he didn't expect a
leadership spill "at this stage".
"At this stage, tomorrow's party room meeting is about the ETS legislation," he said.
"That's the main item on the agenda, that's what we want to discuss."
In a last minute call for action, Mr Rudd told opposition MPs and senators there
were times in politics that called for a bipartisan approach and action in the
national interest.
"I believe we have reached such a time in Australia. We have reached such a time in
Australia this week," Mr Rudd told parliament.
With just three more sitting days to pass the legislation, Mr Rudd turned up the
heat on Mr Turnbull, saying any negotiated deal would be on the table for this week
only.
"We must get this deal done this week," he told parliament.
This week marked the culmination of decades worth of climate change science, 10
years worth of work on a cap and trade scheme and two years on emissions trading, he
said.
"It is simply unsustainable for us to turn and look our kids and grandkids in the
eye and say, 'We didn't step up to the plate when we had a historic opportunity to
do so'."
The government has agreed to exclude agriculture emissions from its scheme and is
expected to concede the need for more compensation for the coal and power sectors in
an effort to finalise the deal.
Should Mr Turnbull get the OK from his party room, it means the agreed amendments
could be introduced to the Senate and voted on as soon as Tuesday evening.
But even if he gets a majority support, some rebel members have remained staunchly
opposed to an ETS - amended or not - and have vowed to cross the floor, which would
seriously undermine Mr Turnbull's authority.
The split has even sparked suggestions Mr Turnbull should renege on an ETS
altogether to keep the coalition intact, although MPs have denied the need for a
secret ballot.
On Monday, senators resumed debate on the unamended scheme in the upper house, where
two motions have been moved to have the vote delayed until next year.
Family First Senator Steve Fielding believes there are enough disgruntled Liberals
to vote with him, along with the Nationals and the Australian Greens, who are all
opposed to the unamended ETS.
Unnamed Liberals have reportedly said a delay motion remains a "live option".