Minchin may flout shadow cabinet on ETS

Liberal powerbroker Nick Minchin is hardening his opposition to the proposed
emissions trading scheme and won't rule out flouting the decision of shadow cabinet.
Even as the coalition continues to negotiate amendments with the government, Senator
Minchin, the opposition's most senior climate change sceptic, urged the Senate to
reject the legislation.
"Passing this law in this fortnight would condemn Australia to lower living
standards for absolutely zero environmental gain," he told the Senate.
His overt rejection of the laws is another blow for Opposition Leader Malcolm
Turnbull, who is struggling to maintain Liberal unity on the divisive climate change
issue.
The debate will be a major test of Mr Turnbull's authority and there'll be serious
questions about his leadership if shadow cabinet backs the laws but the party room
rejects them.
The coalition's chief climate change negotiator, Ian Macfarlane, believes the
government has the mandate for its carbon pollution reduction scheme but many in the
coalition dispute this view, including Senator Minchin.
The exact level of contempt in the coalition for the CPRS will become evident when
Mr Turnbull and Mr Macfarlane take the deal they've struck with the government back
to the coalition party room next week.
Shadow cabinet is expected to tick off any deal but there's no guarantee the party
room will follow its recommendation.
Senator Minchin wouldn't say if he would respect the shadow cabinet decision if it
differed from the party room.
"I've always respected party room decisions," he told reporters.
One of the coalition's most vocal climate change sceptics, West Australian
backbencher Dennis Jensen, is predicting more than a third of the Liberal Party room
may vote against the legislation.
"I don't want to name them but there are 30 MPs," he said.
While he thinks the frontbench will fall into line, Dr Jensen suspects a significant
number of backbenchers will oppose the legislation, currently being debated in the
Senate.
"Quite a lot of them I have spoken to," he said.
Negotiations will continue on Friday, with two meetings between Mr Macfarlane and
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, and could spill over into the weekend.
Mr Macfarlane said the negotiations wouldn't be rushed.
"If we need to get the right answer then quite frankly Copenhagen can wait," he
said, referring to the United Nations climate change conference to be held in
Denmark next month.
On Sky News, Senator Wong wouldn't rule out further concessions on coal,
particularly fugitive emissions.
"Coal has been an issue raised by the coalition, that's not a secret ... what we
have said publicly is that we have a reasonable position on the table in relation to
coal," she said.
"I'm not ruling anything in or out publicly at this stage."
But she insists the government will only agree to financially prudent amendments.
"We are serious about ensuring that any amendments we agree to are economically and
fiscally responsible," Senator Wong said.
The Minerals Council of Australia believes the government has underestimated the
revenue it will derive from the CPRS, using it as an excuse to deny the coalition
some of its proposed amendments.
A BAEconomics report, commissioned by the council, found the CPRS would generate a
surplus of at least $46 billion between 2012 to 2020 against the $1.6 billion
deficit estimated by Treasury, according to MCA chief Mitch Hooke.