Polls give mixed messages to Turnbull

As polls go it was a classic glass half full, glass half empty scenario.
On the one hand, Malcolm Turnbull was given a welcome reprieve, soaring to 32 per
cent, ahead of rival Joe Hockey on 24 per cent as preferred Liberal leader in a
special Newspoll of 1150 people over the weekend.

While on the other hand, the latest Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers showed the
shadow treasurer at 33 per cent maintaining a lead by barely a nose over the
opposition leader on 31 per cent.
After last week's internal Liberal Party blood-letting in the wake of Mr Hockey's
admission he'd been sounded out about taking over as leader, senior Liberals have
closed ranks around their leader.
As the two polls published on Monday delivered their bittersweet message, Mr
Turnbull spent the day in Sydney where he addressed a Foreign Correspondents'
Association lunch.
The embattled leader had just returned from facing critics at the West Australian
Liberal Party conference in Perth who oppose Mr Turnbull's consideration of Labor's
emissions trading bills before next year.
Asked about the polls on Monday, Mr Turnbull was brief, telling reporters, "The only
opinion polls I believe are the ones on election day."
Opposition finance spokeswoman Helen Coonan dismissed the idea of leadership rivalry
and said Mr Turnbull had the full support of all coalition MPs.
"He will remain the leader of the coalition and last week, without an equivocation
at all, all contenders ruled themselves out," Senator Coonan told Sky News.
"So it really is an exercise in futility to be speculating about a poll when the
question simply doesn't arise."
While Mr Hockey led in the overall Nielsen poll of 1400 people conducted late last
week, coalition voters preferred Mr Turnbull as leader with 35 per cent compared to
Mr Hockey on 33 per cent.
Mr Hockey's overall lead over his boss had remained the same in two previous Nielsen
polls in August and June.
But it was Newspoll's first preferred opposition leader poll without Peter Costello
in the line-up.
In July, the Newspoll put Mr Costello at 36 per cent as preferred Liberal leader,
followed by Mr Hockey on 20 per cent, Mr Turnbull on 16 per cent and Tony Abbott
bringing up the rear on 10 per cent.
This time, without Mr Costello, Mr Turnbull shot to the lead as preferred leader on
32 per cent, followed by Mr Hockey on 24 per cent and Mr Abbott on 16 per cent.
Newspoll chief executive officer Martin O'Shannessy said the difference in the
questions between his organisation and Nielsen, and the timing of the polling, could
be responsible for the difference.
He said Newspoll asked who would be the best person to lead while Nielsen asked who
would you prefer.
Nielsen research director John Stirton agreed the difference in the questions could
have contributed to the different outcome.
But Mr Stirton said their poll had shown a consistent lead for Mr Hockey since the
middle of the year.
Both polls also showed Labor continued to hold a significant lead over the coalition
in the two-party preferred vote with Newspoll remaining unchanged at 58-42 and a
slight increase to Labor in Nielsen's poll to 57-43.