Next fire season could be worse: report

Victoria faces a greater threat than Black Saturday in the coming fire season,
according to a leaked report.

The Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) report says scant winter rain
and the prospect of drier, warmer conditions could result in the "greatest potential
loss to life and property".
The report, leaked to Fairfax Community Newspapers, was tabled at a DSE and Country
Fire Authority strategic preparedness committee meeting on July 10.
"The prospect we are looking at is not just another above-average fire season with
above-normal losses or risks to life and property," the report stated.
"The genuine prospect of a season with the greatest potential loss to life and
property is now in sight and, as climate indicators strengthen, this looks to be an
increasing likelihood."
The Black Saturday fires in February that devastated parts of Victoria cost 173
lives and destroyed thousands of properties.
DSE fire management officer Paul Brockhoff said in the report that the number of
fires and the predicted burn areas were expected to run ahead of the 30-year
average.
"There is across the state an observed lack of rain, increased evaporation and the
strongest predictions so far of the continuation of drier and warmer conditions," Mr
Brockhoff said.
The report also said there was a "high likelihood" of an El Nino event occurring
this year, with the fire season to begin early and be more active in the early part
of the season.
It said larger fires were also expected due to the absence of natural barriers, such
as moist gullies and waterways.