Dutton under threat after redistribution

Opposition frontbencher Peter Dutton - touted as a future leader of the federal
Liberal Party - is disappointed at a redistribution that puts his seat at risk.

The northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, which he holds by just 217 votes, becomes a
notional Labor seat under an Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) proposal released
on Friday.
Mr Dutton, the opposition's health spokesman, said he would work hard to retain his
seat.
"Naturally it's disappointing to see a change of the boundaries which turn the seat
notionally Labor," said Mr Dutton, a former policeman who defeated high-profile
Labor frontbencher Cheryl Kernot at the 2001 election.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said the draft redistribution, which makes Dickson
a notional Labor seat with a 1.3 per cent margin, had "badly damaged" Mr Dutton.
Graham Young, a former campaign director of the Queensland Liberal Party, said Mr
Dutton would struggle to win over blue-collar swinging voters he needed to keep his
job.
"I'm not sure the Liberal Party is well off under Malcolm Turnbull as it was under
John Howard," he told AAP on Friday.
The Rudd government's chances of picking up three Liberal-held seats in Brisbane and
Townsville were also boosted.
The Townsville-based seat of Herbert, held by Peter Lindsay, becomes notionally
Labor with a minuscule margin of 0.4 per cent.
Mr Lindsay told AAP he would challenge the redistribution, which puts the Townsville
suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru into the neighbouring Labor seat of Dawson.
"Townsville is Australia's largest tropical city and the local member will be 400km
away in Mackay," Mr Lindsay said.
Liberal backbencher Andrew Laming's narrow margin of 64 votes in Bowman has been
reduced to a wafer-thin hold of just 15 votes from the 2007 election, with the
margin in his Brisbane electorate down to zero.
Michael Johnson's once blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan is also in danger, with its
margin cut from 3.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
Since its creation in 1949, Labor has only held the seat for eight months but Mr
Young said environmentally-conscious voters in the upmarket electorate could swing
it back to the ALP.
But some Labor seats have lost supporters.
Treasurer Wayne Swan's inner-Brisbane seat of Lilley has had its margin reduced from
8.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
Longman, the seat Labor picked up from former Howard government minister Mal Brough
in 2007, has had its margin more than halved to 1.4 per cent.
A new seat, taking in parts of the Gold Coast and Logan City councils, is notionally
Liberal with a 3.1 per cent margin.
The electoral commission wants to name it Wright after poet Judith Wright but local
mayors have objected to the name because of its association with former Queensland
Labor leader and Rockhampton MP Keith Wright, who was jailed for rape in 1993.
Logan City councillor Hajnal Ban, who went public with her bone-breaking leg surgery
in Russia to get taller, has announced she will seek preselection.
Objections to the proposed redistribution must be lodged with the commission by
Friday August 21, 2009.