Fossil fuels here to stay for now despite move towards net zero -- expert

By Siti Radziah Hamzah

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 12 (Bernama) -- Fossil fuels are here to stay for now, despite calls to speed up their phase-out as the world needs to tackle the economic and political complexities arising from the phase-out while the growing world population still rely on them, said an industry player.

Chairman of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) Bob Dudley said gradual shifts replacing the non-renewable fossil fuels are the way to go but governments and industry players would need to work together for their commitment towards net zero carbon emissions as early as 2030.

"We will slowly move out from oil and gas as well as coal, and over time replace it with new things such as more renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, and then there'll be great fuels in the future. I know some people want oil and gas gone tomorrow, but not in this case given the size and scale of the world.

"For example, in 1999, 81 per cent of the world's energy came from oil and gas and coal, just last year, the same amount of energy still came from oil and gas as well as coal. We have a long way to go before it will disappear," he told Bernama in an interview recently.

Countries in the COP28 climate conference pledged to phase out fossil fuels as part of the United Nations summit's “final deal” to tackle global warming, a move which saw opposition from the oil producers pact, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

"The consequences are high for the entire world, not just for Asia. So, the whole world has to work, (despite) different countries having different starting points.

"There is no one size fits all formula, but the consequences for Asia, of course rising temperature and rising sea levels, will have huge impacts," he said, adding that the Asian region would need to increase activities in renewable energy and develop technology to reduce emissions from coal.

"We are at the beginning of an energy transition. Asia plays an important role because of its large population," said Dudley.

Amid volatility in the oil market and a weaker global economic outlook, Dudley has ruled out that oil prices would reach US$100 per barrel next year on the back of demand-supply pull.

Factoring in the risk of geopolitical tensions, he noted that the geopolitical tensions were very much related to the security of the energy supply and stressed the need to ensure global energy supply continues to operate.

"Since there are geopolitical events that we can't predict right now, supply and demand in the market will keep the prices well under US$100," said Dudley.

All eyes on nuclear

As the world strengthens its energy security, Dudley, who was the former group chief executive of BP, said nuclear power is not getting enough attention but there are new forms of technology like small nuclear reactors that can be used.

"The world has forgotten that it (nuclear) is a clean, sustainable energy. The world forgot about energy security and after the invasion of Russia and Ukraine, the gas energy supply in Europe was cut off and suddenly the world realised energy security is extremely important.

"Countries should not just rely on one kind of fuel but Malaysia is a great place in terms of energy security, you have great companies like Petronas partnering for projects," he noted.

Dudley said there are parts of Asia that could build big nuclear reactors such as China.

"China, for example, is building nuclear plants probably once a month now because of the size of its population. I don't know if Malaysia needs big nuclear plants but the country has natural gas resources," he added.

China currently stands at the forefront of nuclear technology with the start of its commercial operations of a new generation nuclear reactor, the fourth generation Shidaowan plant in Shandong province.

In Malaysia, the government has not ruled out the use of nuclear energy to achieve its energy transition target.

In late August, Malaysia’s Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli said nuclear energy would be a part of Malaysia's plan in time but any major pivots, especially on nuclear energy, is something that needed nationwide consensus.

Energy Industries Council regional director for Asia Pacific Azman Nasir said with the current target of net zero carbon emissions, the government is already taking the right direction in adopting a holistic approach where it considers various sources of energy for energy transition.

"That includes nuclear as it is the cleanest source of energy. Nothing is off the table.

“But the government needs to consider everything (to implement nuclear projects) and address all the big ticket issues first," he told Bernama in an interview recently.

Azman emphasised that the considerations for other energy would complement the six energy transition levers under the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). "If one of the six levers falters, that is how we replace that with other energy sources. That is why the government is considering everything and we can't eliminate fossils because we still need them,"  he added.

Azman stressed several considerations that need to be taken seriously if the adoption of nuclear power in Malaysia materialises, namely cost, the high possibility of project delays, as well as safety and nuclear waste management.

"Normally, nuclear projects must satisfy strict licensing and design requirements as they have to be very safe. Also, the project tends to lead to cost overruns. It takes six to eight years to build a nuclear power reactor, Malaysia is running out of time for its net zero commitment, so that's the argument against it whether nuclear is the right option or not," said Azman.

-- BERNAMA