El Nino likely in mid-2009: forecasters

An El Nino weather event is increasingly likely to occur this year, possibly by
mid-winter, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

In an updated forecast, the bureau says international climate models suggest
Australia is headed for a drier than normal winter, particularly in the east.
"The average of the forecasts from each of five models predict El Nino conditions
being established by the southern spring, and by mid-winter in four of them," the
bureau says.
"There is now more agreement between the models than one month ago."
The bureau says the probability of an El Nino event in 2009 is "significantly
higher" than the climatological probability of about 20 per cent.
The Southern Oscillation Index, used to predict the likelihood of an El Nino
developing, indicates a "rapidly warming phase".
Sea surface temperatures have warmed across the Pacific Ocean and are now half a
degree higher than average.
"Below the surface, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are warmer than average by
two to three degrees celsius," the updated forecast states.