Australian winter 'may be warmer, drier'

Australia is heading for a warmer and possibly drier winter this year, with early
indications an El Nino event is developing, the national weather forecaster's most
recent outlook suggests.
Warmer than normal days are expected across much of the country from June to August,
especially in the west and south, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
"In all bar the northern tropical areas there's a moderate to strong shift in the
odds favouring warmer than average days for the winter season," the bureau's
National Climate Centre meteorologist Grant Beard told AAP.
The odds of the average winter maximum temperature exceeding the long-term median
are above 60 per cent across the southern halves of the Northern Territory and
Queensland.
That situation is the same in NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
In parts of Western Australia the chances are as high as 80 per cent.
Mr Beard said there were "potential early signs" an El Nino was developing.
"It's still early days yet but the computer models that we're looking at have been
increasingly going for an El Nino this year," he said.
In Australia, El Nino events are associated with an increased probability of drier
conditions, particularly in the east.
El Ninos normally begin developing between March and June.
The bureau's winter outlook states "the chances of above normal falls are about the
same as the chances of below normal".
Between June and August the chance of exceeding median rainfall is between 40 and 55
per cent in most parts of the country.
The news is worse in parts of WA, SA and Victoria, where the chances of a wetter
than normal winter drop below 40 per cent.