ETS `will cost 10,000 coal mining jobs`

The coal industry is predicting 10,000 mining jobs will be lost by 2021 if the Rudd
government proceeds with its carbon pollution reduction scheme.
The Australian Coal Association says an independent analysis of the scheme also
forecasts the closure of 16 coal mines and the loss of substantial royalty payments
to state governments as a direct impact of emissions trading.
But the government says the analysis is based on flawed assumptions, because its
modelling assumes there will be a 15 per cent cut in Australia's emissions by 2020
without a significant global agreement.
Coal mining is excluded as an emissions-intensive trade-exposed industry, making it
ineligible for higher compensation, even though some individual mines produce
emissions that exceed the eligibility threshold.
Instead of receiving a 66 per cent permit allocation like other trade-exposed
activities, such as LNG and chemicals, coal mining will receive just 4.5 per cent.
As a result, the industry says it will pay more than $14 billion to the government
in the first 19 years of the scheme.
The ACIL-Tasman analysis says emissions trading will have a major impact on the
industry's competitiveness, reducing coal production by 22 billion tonnes below
"business as usual".
Parliamentary secretary for climate change Greg Combet rejects that finding,
accusing the industry of making an ambit claim for $10 billion in government
assistance.
"The industry has modelled the effects of the scheme on the assumption the
government is seeking a 15 per cent reduction in emissions without an international
agreement," he told AAP.
Without that agreement, the reduction target would be just five per cent, meaning
the cost of carbon would be the same in Australia as it was in competing overseas
countries.
Treating mines individually would deliver windfall gains for mines with low
emissions, Mr Combet said.