ID :
53196
Tue, 03/31/2009 - 22:33
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http://m.oananews.org//node/53196
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ADB: Vietnam economy to grow 4.5 percent in 2009
Hanoi (VNA) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Vietnam is on track to achieving an economic growth rate of 4.5 percent in 2009, elow both the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's forecasts of 4.75 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.
The ADB's projection is a moderate growth level for Vietnam when compared to other
countries in the region and Asia, which is expected to hit 3.4 percent this year
and recover to 6.1 percent by 2010, according to economist Bahodir Ganiev at a
press conference in Hanoi on March 31 to announce the Asian Development Outlook
2009 (ADO), the annual ADB publication that forecasts economic trends in Asia.
According to the ADB, Vietnam 's economic growth is expected to rebound to 6.5
percent in 2010, much higher than the forecast made by other prestigious
institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank, which estimated 5.5 percent growth
in 2010 and 6 percent in 2011.
The baseline scenario for 2009 and 2010 assumes that the Vietnamese government
will take additional fiscal stimulus measures, on top of the already 1 billion USD
approved for promoting economic growth in 2009. Furthermore, the State Bank of
Vietnam is expected to maintain a fairly loose monetary policy, provided that
inflation remains subdued.
Vietnam 's fiscal deficit in 2009 is forecast to widen to 9.8 percent of GDP
due largely to an expected decline in government oil revenue and a decreased
base corporate income tax from 28 percent to 25 percent.
However, average annual inflation is forecast to slow to 4 percent in 2009, since
GDP is likely to be below potential and world commodity prices are expected to be
substantially lower than last year's average levels.
Bahodir said the current account deficit, which is forecast to widen to 11.5
percent of GDP this year, is expected to narrow to 9.7 percent of GDP in 2010.
Ayumi Konishi, ADB Country Director in Vietnam , said "The main near-term
challenge for Vietnam is to limit the slowdown in growth, while keeping the
fiscal and current account deficits in check."
According to the ADO , achieving this balance requires the government to be
particularly careful in taking additional fiscal stimulus measures, and to avoid
spending on low-return public investment projects.
The ADO said that in the medium term, GDP growth is likely to pick up to 7-7.5
percent, driven by strong FDI inflows in 2010.
A government decision in October 2008 to allow full equitisation of certain state
enterprises, in particular through their sale to foreign investors, will likely
spur further FDI inflows, Bahodir wrote in the ADB report.-Enditem
The ADB's projection is a moderate growth level for Vietnam when compared to other
countries in the region and Asia, which is expected to hit 3.4 percent this year
and recover to 6.1 percent by 2010, according to economist Bahodir Ganiev at a
press conference in Hanoi on March 31 to announce the Asian Development Outlook
2009 (ADO), the annual ADB publication that forecasts economic trends in Asia.
According to the ADB, Vietnam 's economic growth is expected to rebound to 6.5
percent in 2010, much higher than the forecast made by other prestigious
institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank, which estimated 5.5 percent growth
in 2010 and 6 percent in 2011.
The baseline scenario for 2009 and 2010 assumes that the Vietnamese government
will take additional fiscal stimulus measures, on top of the already 1 billion USD
approved for promoting economic growth in 2009. Furthermore, the State Bank of
Vietnam is expected to maintain a fairly loose monetary policy, provided that
inflation remains subdued.
Vietnam 's fiscal deficit in 2009 is forecast to widen to 9.8 percent of GDP
due largely to an expected decline in government oil revenue and a decreased
base corporate income tax from 28 percent to 25 percent.
However, average annual inflation is forecast to slow to 4 percent in 2009, since
GDP is likely to be below potential and world commodity prices are expected to be
substantially lower than last year's average levels.
Bahodir said the current account deficit, which is forecast to widen to 11.5
percent of GDP this year, is expected to narrow to 9.7 percent of GDP in 2010.
Ayumi Konishi, ADB Country Director in Vietnam , said "The main near-term
challenge for Vietnam is to limit the slowdown in growth, while keeping the
fiscal and current account deficits in check."
According to the ADO , achieving this balance requires the government to be
particularly careful in taking additional fiscal stimulus measures, and to avoid
spending on low-return public investment projects.
The ADO said that in the medium term, GDP growth is likely to pick up to 7-7.5
percent, driven by strong FDI inflows in 2010.
A government decision in October 2008 to allow full equitisation of certain state
enterprises, in particular through their sale to foreign investors, will likely
spur further FDI inflows, Bahodir wrote in the ADB report.-Enditem
