Tree change `likely` for Aussie farmland

Australia is set for a tree change, with great swathes of farmland expected to be
taken over by forests under emissions trading.
Researchers predict the amount of tree plantations could increase thirteen-fold in
the long-term, as emissions trading provides cash for forests.
Almost a billion seedlings could be needed each year to keep pace.
Emissions trading, due to start next year, will provide rewards for planting trees
because they absorb carbon dioxide as they grow.
Large areas of NSW and Queensland will become economically attractive for
"environmental plantings" - forests which are left in the ground.
Chunks of Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia would be turned
over to commercial plantations, which would be harvested.
The far-reaching forecast comes from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource
Economics (ABARE) - the federal government's agricultural research body.
Spokesman Helal Ahammad provided details at this year's ABARE conference in Canberra
on Wednesday.
He said Australia had about two million hectares of tree plantations.
If emissions trading proceeded with the government's more ambitious target of
cutting greenhouse emissions by 15 per cent by 2020, the amount of land for which
plantations became financially viable would soar to 26 million hectares by 2050.
Most of the new forests would be "environmental plantings", and they would mostly
take over grazing land, because it was not so profitable.
"In the future, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is going to make a difference,
increase the profitability of afforestation," Dr Ahammad told the conference.
But the conference was told the tree change might not reach its full potential. If
the government adopted its lower target of a five per cent cut to greenhouse
emissions by 2020, fewer trees would be planted.
Other constraints include a lack of skilled workers, concerns about locking away
land in forests for a long time, the need for institutions to finance the scheme,
and the fact that young forests soak up plenty of water.
There were also social implications from converting farmland to forest, the
conference was told.
Dr Ahammad said the southern states would be suitable for commercial plantations
because they already had the infrastructure for logging, which the northern states
tended to lack.
The government aims to cut emissions by between five and 15 per cent by 2020,
depending on what the rest of the world does.