Export decline, though much less in Dec, to cost 10 mn jobs

New Delhi, Jan 6 (PTI) Exporters Tuesday warned 10
million people will be out of job by March but the reduced
export decline in December raised hopes of stability returning
to overseas trade, battered by the global economic crisis.

Exports fell for the third straight month but the
decline of 1.6 per cent in December to USD 11.2 billion
was much smaller than the 9.9 per cent decline in November and
12.1 per cent in October, an official said.

Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO)
President A Sakthivel said exporters, mostly in textile, gems
and jewellery and leather products, would be forced to lay off
10 million people by March.

Export units, which account for about 20 per cent of
India's Gross Domestic Product, are highly labour-intensive,
employing 150 million people.

The country's exports, which posted a robust 30.9 per
cent growth rate in the first half of the fiscal, started
shrinking from October onwards. As a result, the
April-December expansion was reduced to half.

"The negative trends will continue in the next couple of
months. I hope we will end the fiscal with exports of about
USD 175-180 billion," Sakthivel said.

However, the Commerce Ministry hopes that exports would
stabilise.

Disappointed with the stimulus packages, FIEO said there
was no "serious consideration" for exporters in the measures
announced by the government last week.

The target for the current fiscal is USD 200 billion
while exports totalled about USD 160 billion in 2007-08.

Europe and North America, which account for 37 per cent
of India's merchandise exports, are reeling under recession
and slowdown.

The official said exports declined by 18 per cent in the
textile sector, and 21 per cent in gems and jewellery, while
handicrafts' overseas shipment fell by 64 per cent in
December.

During April-December 2008, exports grew by about 15 per
cent to USD 130 billion compared with USD 113 billion in
the same period last year, he said.

Meanwhile, research firm Dun and Bradstreet has said
India may miss its export target of USD 200 billion this
fiscal and could be about USD 182 billion. PTI RMI
RKM