Obama to waste no time in talks with Pyongyang: experts

By Lee Chi-dong
Seoul, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- The new U.S. administration may move faster than
expected to deal with North Korea in its inaugural year, but Pyongyang's attitude
will set the tone for the overall process, experts say.

The current stalemate in the six-way talks on the North's nuclear program is
almost certain to be inherited by President-elect Barack Obama, who will enter
the White House in just three weeks.
North Korea rejected a proposal over ways to verify its nuclear declaration in
the latest round of six-way talks involving the U.S., South Korea, China, Russia,
and Japan. The disabling of its key nuclear facilities in Yongbyon under a 2007
deal remains incomplete.
"As the nuclear issue is deadlocked in the verification phase, it will be hard
for Obama to put the matter on the back burner," Kim Sung-han, professor of
international studies at Korea University in Seoul, said. "If a verification
protocol had been agreed on, Obama would have more leeway to handle other
pressing issues first."
Obama and his aides must be aware that the North could take provocative steps,
such as missile launches and preparations for another nuclear test, if Pyongyang
feels it is being ignored, Kim said.
A concrete picture of Obama's foreign policy remains veiled as the incoming
president juggles priorities amid an ongoing economic crisis and trouble in
Afghanistan and the rest of the Middle East. Hillary Clinton, nominated to lead
the State Department, has yet to form her North Korea team.
Analysts speculate the new U.S. government may show flexibility towards North
Korea in its early months to lay the groundwork for a broader deal.
"Eventually, there will be a face-saving measure reached on verification to allow
enough progress to enter phase three," said Bruce Klingner, senior research
fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. Under the
second of the three-tiered denuclearization process, North Korea has been
receiving aid in the form of heavy fuel oil as a reward for disabling its
Yongbyon reactor. The third and final stage is aimed at the complete dismantling
of all of its nuclear materials and weapons.
"It is far from certain, however, that the tactical changes Obama advocates will
achieve verifiable North Korean denuclearization. (North Korean leader) Kim
Jong-il has shown great reluctance to make concessions or... achieve real
progress on diplomatic agreements with the U.S. or its neighbors," Klingner
added.
Gary Samore, vice president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, also voiced
optimism that the Obama administration would be able to reach agreement on a
verification protocol with North Korea, but added such an outcome would require
"tough negotiations."
Experts agree that striking a verification deal and completing the second phase
of the disarmament process is a minimum precondition for "high-level contact"
between Pyongyang and Washington, similar to that during the waning days of the
Clinton era.
Madeleine Albright, then secretary of state, met with the North Korean leader in
Pyongyang in 2000 in response to North Korean Vice-Marshall Jo Myong-rok's trip
to Washington, in which the two sides produced a joint communique for
reconciliation.
Obama, who has recruited many foreign policy aides from the Clinton
administration into his own camp, supports "aggressive, sustained and direct
diplomacy" toward Pyongyang. During a primary debate, he expressed willingness to
meet with shunned leaders like North Korea's Kim Jong-il within his first year as
president. Obama later toned down his ambitious plan after coming under sharp
criticism from rival candidate Hillary Clinton, saying such meetings would occur
only after adequate preparations.
"I expect high-level contract between the Obama administration and North Korea in
2009," Scott Snyder, a senior associate at the Asia Foundation, said. "I think
that some post-phase two activities can be initiated."
The Center for American Progress, an emerging think tank connected to the Obama
camp, recently proposed that Obama send a presidential envoy to Pyongyang within
100 days of taking office.
Washington pundits point to Albright, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger,
and retired Defense Secretary William Perry as possible candidates.
Perry is known for an extensive 1999 review of U.S. policy on North Korea that
offered to provide Pyongyang a package of security guarantees, economic aid and
support for normalization of Pyongyang-Tokyo ties in return for Pyongyang's
suspension of its nuclear weapons and long-range missile development.
"The Perry Process can be a benchmark," Koh Yu-hwan, professor of North Korean
studies at Seoul's Dongguk University, said. "There is a possibility that the
U.S. will seek higher-level talks with North Korea than the current negotiations
by an assistant secretary after setting a clear goal and deadline."
If Pyongyang responds positively, Koh added, the Obama administration is likely
to pursue a comprehensive approach on the North Korea issue beyond the nuclear
program to include human rights and missile development, as well as efforts to
bring lasting peace to the peninsula.
Kim Keun-sik, a North Korea specialist at Kyungnam University in Seoul, said the
first face-to-face meeting between North Korea and the U.S. after the launch of
the Obama administration is important.
"It is important to build mutual trust in the first meeting, whether at the
six-way talks or through bilateral contact," he said.
Progress in talks between Pyongyang and Washington will help thaw frozen
inter-Korean relations, he said.
"For now, both South and North Korea have no way to back out of their stand-off,
making it difficult for them to resolve the problem on their own," he said. "The
logjam can be broken through outside factors following the inauguration of
President Obama."
lcd@yna.co.kr
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