ID :
37854
Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:21
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/37854
The shortlink copeid
N. Korea may revive nuclear brinkmanship against new U.S. administration: report
SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may resort to brinkmanship to up the ante
in multilateral talks on its nuclear program, but drastic U.S. concessions are
not likely by the incoming U.S. administration, a report said Monday.
Pyongyang will take a wait-and-see approach to determine the policy of the Barack
Obama administration but then may raise the threat of missiles and a second
nuclear weapon test in order to gain incentives, said the report by the Institute
of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a think tank under the foreign affairs
ministry.
Such a strategy, however, is unlikely to draw compromises from Washington as U.S.
President-elect Obama may then toughen his position, it said. The new president
will also be occupied with the ongoing economic crisis and pressing foreign
policy issues such as the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran's own nuclear
ambitions, it said.
"The Obama administration is expected to be strongly determined to hold sincere
and direct negotiations, but it will also be very strict on the principle of
denuclearization," the report said.
"However, it seems highly likely that the Obama administration, more than the
Bush administration, will be preoccupied with other issues than North Korea," the
report said. "Not to mention the financial crisis, it would be juggling the
issues of ending the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear drive, Pakistan and
Russia... and the North Korean nuclear issue will be pushed back further down in
the diplomacy priority list of the new Obama administration."
This past year saw little progress in the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing
North Korea. In the latest round, the participating countries -- South and North
Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia -- failed to reach an agreement on how
to verify North Korea's past nuclear activities. North Korea conducted its first
nuclear test in 2006.
The sporadic talks started in 2003. In a breakthrough deal in October 2007, North
Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program in exchange for 1 million tons of
energy aid and other diplomatic incentives. About half of the promised aid has so
far been delivered, with Pyongyang calling for speedier delivery of the remaining
amount.
Should the nuclear stalemate continue, the report said, North Korea may turn to
South Korea as its last source of assistance. North Korea has cut off dialogue
with the South, which suspended food aid to Pyongyang this past year. South
Korean President Lee Myung-bak adopted a tougher stance than his liberal
predecessors after taking office in February, demanding Pyongyang dismantle its
nuclear facilities and improve its human rights conditions in return for
continued aid shipments.
"In the latter part of 2009," the report said, "in case Pyongyang is still
deadlocked in obstacles to the six-party talks and relations with the U.S., there
is a possibility that it may try to find refuge in dialogue with South Korea."
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
in multilateral talks on its nuclear program, but drastic U.S. concessions are
not likely by the incoming U.S. administration, a report said Monday.
Pyongyang will take a wait-and-see approach to determine the policy of the Barack
Obama administration but then may raise the threat of missiles and a second
nuclear weapon test in order to gain incentives, said the report by the Institute
of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a think tank under the foreign affairs
ministry.
Such a strategy, however, is unlikely to draw compromises from Washington as U.S.
President-elect Obama may then toughen his position, it said. The new president
will also be occupied with the ongoing economic crisis and pressing foreign
policy issues such as the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran's own nuclear
ambitions, it said.
"The Obama administration is expected to be strongly determined to hold sincere
and direct negotiations, but it will also be very strict on the principle of
denuclearization," the report said.
"However, it seems highly likely that the Obama administration, more than the
Bush administration, will be preoccupied with other issues than North Korea," the
report said. "Not to mention the financial crisis, it would be juggling the
issues of ending the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear drive, Pakistan and
Russia... and the North Korean nuclear issue will be pushed back further down in
the diplomacy priority list of the new Obama administration."
This past year saw little progress in the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing
North Korea. In the latest round, the participating countries -- South and North
Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia -- failed to reach an agreement on how
to verify North Korea's past nuclear activities. North Korea conducted its first
nuclear test in 2006.
The sporadic talks started in 2003. In a breakthrough deal in October 2007, North
Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program in exchange for 1 million tons of
energy aid and other diplomatic incentives. About half of the promised aid has so
far been delivered, with Pyongyang calling for speedier delivery of the remaining
amount.
Should the nuclear stalemate continue, the report said, North Korea may turn to
South Korea as its last source of assistance. North Korea has cut off dialogue
with the South, which suspended food aid to Pyongyang this past year. South
Korean President Lee Myung-bak adopted a tougher stance than his liberal
predecessors after taking office in February, demanding Pyongyang dismantle its
nuclear facilities and improve its human rights conditions in return for
continued aid shipments.
"In the latter part of 2009," the report said, "in case Pyongyang is still
deadlocked in obstacles to the six-party talks and relations with the U.S., there
is a possibility that it may try to find refuge in dialogue with South Korea."
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
