ID :
31899
Mon, 11/24/2008 - 09:25
Auther :

Zardari takes Pak establishment by surprise with N-remarks

Rezaul H Laskar

Islamabad, Nov 23 (PTI) Asif Ali Zardari's promise of a "no-first use" of nuclear weapons against India has taken the stablishment here by surprise, with analysts and politicians saying the "un-informed" Pakistan President may have made the bold remarks
"off-the-cuff".

Zardari stunned the Pakistani political and military
establishment Saturday when he announced that Islamabad would
"most definitely" not be the first to use atomic weapons in a
possible conflict, addressing the Hindustan Times Leadership
Summit via video-conference in New Delhi.

However, strategic experts and politicians in Pakistan
told PTI that Zardari will face difficulties in delivering on
his promise as many thorny issues remain unresolved between
the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Lt Gen (retired) Kamal Matinuddin, a leading defence
analyst and close watcher of the country's nuclear programme,
said Zardari's remarks appeared to have been made in an "off
the cuff" manner and he was apparently "not fully informed or
completely aware of" Pakistan's stated nuclear doctrine.

The opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) said
the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)-led government appeared to
be indulging in "public relations" exercises instead of
focussing on resolving "real issues" like the dragging Kashmir
issue.

Matinuddin, who authored the book "Nuclearisation of
South Asia" that charts Pakistan's nuclear programme, admitted
that Zardari's remarks marked a significant shift from the
country's established nuclear doctrine.

Matinuddin said Pakistan had retained the option in view
of its "open borders" and status as a smaller nuclear power.

"Deterrence works only when the enemy knows Pakistan will
use its nuclear weapons," he told PTI.

Zardari's comments, he pointed out, would "reduce the
effect of deterrence".

Significantly, Matinuddin said there had been no official
change in Pakistan's established nuclear doctrine as the
matter had not been debated by the Strategic Plans Division,
the organisation which manages the nuclear arsenal, parliament
or the Foreign Office.

"A change in the nuclear doctrine has not taken place,"
he said.

Opposition PML-N spokesman Ahsan Iqbal, a close confidant
of party chief Nawaz Sharif, said Zardari's remarks amounted
to a "public relations" exercise "that will not take us
anywhere".

Iqbal also said there was nothing new in Zardari's
proposal for a pact to declare South Asia a nuclear-free zone
as Sharif had mooted a similar proposal when he was Prime
Minister in the 1990s.

"Moreover, the Lahore Declaration signed by Mr Sharif and
then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999 said
both sides would hold talks to ensure that there is no nuclear
conflict between India and Pakistan," he said.

Answering a question on whether Pakistan would say that
it would not use its nuclear weapons against India, Zardari
had said: "I am against nuclear warfare altogether. Leave
alone use, I don't appreciate it."

Asked whether this meant Pakistan would not make first
use of nuclear weapons, he replied, "Most definitely."

Shortly after conducting a series of nuclear tests in May
1998, India announced a "no first use" nuclear doctrine.

Pakistan, on the other hand, kept open the option of
first use of atomic weapons as part of its policy of
deterrence, citing its lack of conventional military parity.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is controlled by the powerful
army, which has ruled the country for almost half of its
history.

The military has always been wary of political
interference in nuclear issues even though the atomic weapons
programme was launched by Zardari's father-in-law and PPP
founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

Iqbal said there was no disagreement among political
parties in Pakistan on the need to end hostility with India
and establish peace in South Asia.

"But for this, we will have to focus on real issues like
Kashmir and interference in Pakistan from Afghanistan. The
Indian influence in this regard has to be addressed," he said.

The PML-N spokesman warned that these "real issues have
the potential to derail bilateral relations".

The PPP-led government, Iqbal said, had shown "no real
imagination" and launched no major initiatives to address the
outstanding problems with India and seemed to be content
following the domestic and foreign policies initiated by the
regime of former President Pervez Musharraf.

Though army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has kept the
armed forces at a distance from politics since he came to
power last year, the PPP-led government has had to maintain a
delicate balance in its dealings with the military.

The government faced considerable embarrassment in July
when it was forced to withdraw a move to take over the
powerful army-led ISI and place it under the interior
ministry. PTI RHL

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