India to get away with global crisis "lightly": Plan panel

New Delhi, Nov 23 (PTI) India would get away lightly with
the global financial meltdown which has pushed the economies
of the developed world into a recession, according to Planning
Commission.

"The international situation has changed ...India could
get away lightly due to its limited exposure in the
international market", the Commission said in its recent
analysis on the impact of global financial crisis on India.

Pointing out that India is not immune from the
happenings in the international arena, it said, "if there is a
decline in the capital inflow, as a result of the foreign
investors' need for liquidity, the stock markets would get
affected."

The domestic investors might also face difficulties
in raising capital which may hurt the domestic growth, the
Commission said without giving any revised economic growth
projections for the current fiscal. Similarly, exports would
be hit on account of slowing down of international economy.

Noting that experts have projected a wide range of
economic growth ranging between 7 per cent to 8.7 per cent for
2008-09, the Commission said, "under such a situation, relying
on one or the other estimate would particularly be risky".

While the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) has
projected a GDP growth of 7 per cent, the Centre for
Minoroting Indian Economy (CMIE) has pegged the growth at 8.7
per cent.

The forecast growth rates for 2008-09, it said, "has
considerably been influenced by the recent crisis in the
western economies of the developled world, trigerred mainly by
the meltdown in the Wall Street."

As per the Planning Commission said, the growth rate of
the Indian economy for 2008-09 would continue to be one of
the highest in the world.

The Indian economy, during the past five years ending
2007-08 has recorded a growth rate of 8.8 per cent. "This is
the highest average for the medium term growth realised in the
country so far," it added.

Noting that the growth rate realised in the
agriculture sector is also greater than the target set for the
Eleventh Plan, the Commission said, "the growth rate realised
in the industry and the services sector are high and match the
expectations of a fast expanding economy."

The Eleventh Plan, which was approved by the National
Development Council (NDC) in December 2007, set a growth
target of 9 per cent and reach 10 per cent by the terminal
year.

Although the growth rate during 2007-08, the first
year of the Eleventh Plan, was at 9 per cent, the
international events overtook other considerations and the
growth rate in the current year is likely to slip.

With the international recession continuing well into
the next year, it may become difficult for the country to
register a high growth rate. PTI BSP
RKM
NNNN