India, China to emerge as major world powers by 2025

Washington, Nov 21 (PTI) India and China have been identified as "major rising powers" in an emerging multi-polar world, and this could bring in "new stakes and rules of the game" in the international arena, according to a new US intelligence forecast.

"We believe chances are good that India and China will
continue to rise, but their ascent is not guaranteed and both
will have to overcome high economic and social hurdles," a
report by the US Directorate of National Intelligence has
said.

The report titled "Global Trends-2025, a World
Transformed" has come out as the new Barack Obama
administration takes over and clearly points out that if
current trends continue by 2025, China will have the world's
second largest economy and will be a "leading military power."

Though the current Superpower United States will
remain the single most important actor on the world stage by
2025, but it will be less dominant in the new global
multi-polar system with the number of new players.

The report said India would continue on the road to
rapid economic growth, but warned "regional and ethnic
insurgencies that have plagued country since independence are
likely to persist.

"But they will not threaten India's unity. We assess
New Delhi will remain confident that it can contain the
Kashmiri separatist movement. However, India is likely to
experience heightened violence and instability in several
parts of the country because of the growing reach of the
Maoist Naxalite movement."

While, the report labels China as an emerging military
power, it is silent on what India's future military strength
would be?

The report while projecting a brisk relationship
developing between India and the US particularly in transfer
of high technology and trade, said the political leadership in
New Delhi will avoid transformation of these ties into some
sort of an "alliance" framework.

"Indian leaders do not see Washington as a military or
economic patron, and now believe the international situation
has made such a benefactor unnecessarily," the report said.

It, however, said New Delhi would follow on the course
of currently developing close ties with the US, "apparently as
a hedge against any development of hostile ties with China".

The report said Indian leaders could also positioned
their country as a "political and cultural bridge between
rising China and the US."

The transformation is being fueled by a globalizing
economy, marked by an historic shift of relative wealth and
economic power from West to East, and by the increasing weight
of new players — especially China and India, the report said.

"The whole international system — as constructed
following World War II — will be revolutionized. Not only will
new players — Brazil, Russia, India and China — have a seat at
the international high table, they will bring new stakes and
rules of the game. The unprecedented transfer of wealth
roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the
foreseeable future" it added.

Focusing on India, the intelligence assessment said:
"Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more
people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy,
food and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as
demand outstrips supply. The potential for conflict will
increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the
greater Middle East."

The report discusses in some detail of the role and
place of India both in a domestic setting and in global
context stressing that over the next 15 to 20 years "Indian
leaders will strive for a multi-polar international system,
with New Delhi as one of the poles and serving as a political
and cultural bridge between a rising China and the United
States".

"India's growing international confidence, derived
primarily from its economic growth and its successful
democratic record, now drives New Delhi toward partnerships
with many countries. However, these partnerships are aimed at
maximizing India's autonomy, not at aligning India with any
country or international coalition," the report said.

"India probably will continue to enjoy relatively
rapid economic growth. Although India faces lingering
deficiencies in its domestic infrastructure, skilled labour,
and energy production, we expect the nation's rapidly
expanding middle class, youthful population, reduced reliance
on agriculture, and high domestic savings and investment rates
to propel continued economic growth," it said.

"India's impressive economic growth over the past 15
years has reduced the number of people living in absolute
poverty, but the growing gap between rich and poor will become
a more important political issue," it added.

India and Indians, the report maintained, will remain
strongly committed to democracy, but the polity could become
more fragmented and fractious, with national power being
shared across successive political coalitions.

"Future elections are likely to be multi-sided affairs
yielding awkward coalitions with unclear mandates. The general
direction of India's economic policymaking is unlikely to be
reversed, but the pace and scale of reform will fluctuate."

The US intelligence prediction have also identified
three other Asian nations as up and coming powers, all from
the Muslim world -- Indonesia, Iran and Turkey. PTI