ID :
31040
Wed, 11/19/2008 - 09:38
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http://m.oananews.org//node/31040
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GOVT MUST KEEP 2009 INFLATIONARY PRESSURES UNDER CONTROL : ECONOMIST
Jakarta, Nov 18 (ANTARA) - The government should be able to keep inflationary pressures next year under control so that the national economy which would rely much on domestic consumption could withstand the impact of the global economic slowdown resulting from the current financial crisis, an econmist said.
Tony Prasetiantono, an economist of state-owned bank BNI, said next year's inflation was predicted to reach 7.5 percent so that the economy was expected to grow between 5.0 to 5.5. percent.
"If inflationary pressures are low, the SBI key rate will be at between 8.0 and 8.5 percent. That will be the capital of the country's economy. Another measure that has to be taken is increasing government spending. As of January the government must speed up expenditures. There must be no delay," he said.
He said next year the rupiah exchange rate would be at between Rp10,000 and Rp10.500 against the US dollar if the government immediately implemented its blanket guarantee. "If it does not, the rate could be Rp10,000 to Rp11,500," he said. So, an "imported inflation" could still happen as a result of the weak rupiah exchange rate, he said.
He said the world price of crude oils would be around US$80 per barrel next year on hope from the real sector and international demand.
"If the price is too low it will suppress commodity prices which will in turn suppress income of farmers in the region. It will later affect banks that give credits to the farmers. The US$80 price is the middle price," he said.
Chief researcher of PT Recapital Securities, Poltak Hotradero, meanwhile said high inflation was recorded several months in 2008 namely in January, March, May, June, July and September.
He said if inflation in the months was low, inflation in the whole year of 2009 would be low.
"So next January will be the key factor. If inflation in the month is lower than in the same period of 2008, the SBI rate may drop. It could drop to 0.5 percent if the Fed rate is also down," he said.
He said domestic investment in 2009 was expected to grow 28.6 percent while domestic deposits to grow 25.4 percent. Based on that, the country's economy is expected to grow 5.5 percent with the rate of inflation to slow down to 7.5 percent.
About the oil price, Poltak said it could continue to be under pressure in view of continuing low demand.
In addition, high demand for liquidity in the OPEC member countries like Iran and Venezuela would certainly be responded by efforts to flood the market with their products.
"Meanwhile there is also a Russia factor, a non-OPEC member that also has an interest in the oil price following the drop in their foreign exchange reserves until four percent and its need to raise around US$200 billion to recapitalize their banks," he said.
Tony Prasetiantono, an economist of state-owned bank BNI, said next year's inflation was predicted to reach 7.5 percent so that the economy was expected to grow between 5.0 to 5.5. percent.
"If inflationary pressures are low, the SBI key rate will be at between 8.0 and 8.5 percent. That will be the capital of the country's economy. Another measure that has to be taken is increasing government spending. As of January the government must speed up expenditures. There must be no delay," he said.
He said next year the rupiah exchange rate would be at between Rp10,000 and Rp10.500 against the US dollar if the government immediately implemented its blanket guarantee. "If it does not, the rate could be Rp10,000 to Rp11,500," he said. So, an "imported inflation" could still happen as a result of the weak rupiah exchange rate, he said.
He said the world price of crude oils would be around US$80 per barrel next year on hope from the real sector and international demand.
"If the price is too low it will suppress commodity prices which will in turn suppress income of farmers in the region. It will later affect banks that give credits to the farmers. The US$80 price is the middle price," he said.
Chief researcher of PT Recapital Securities, Poltak Hotradero, meanwhile said high inflation was recorded several months in 2008 namely in January, March, May, June, July and September.
He said if inflation in the months was low, inflation in the whole year of 2009 would be low.
"So next January will be the key factor. If inflation in the month is lower than in the same period of 2008, the SBI rate may drop. It could drop to 0.5 percent if the Fed rate is also down," he said.
He said domestic investment in 2009 was expected to grow 28.6 percent while domestic deposits to grow 25.4 percent. Based on that, the country's economy is expected to grow 5.5 percent with the rate of inflation to slow down to 7.5 percent.
About the oil price, Poltak said it could continue to be under pressure in view of continuing low demand.
In addition, high demand for liquidity in the OPEC member countries like Iran and Venezuela would certainly be responded by efforts to flood the market with their products.
"Meanwhile there is also a Russia factor, a non-OPEC member that also has an interest in the oil price following the drop in their foreign exchange reserves until four percent and its need to raise around US$200 billion to recapitalize their banks," he said.
