ID :
25864
Tue, 10/21/2008 - 20:38
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/25864
The shortlink copeid
EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES FACING THREAT OF COLLAPSE: OBSERVERS
Jakarta, Oct 21 (ANTARA) - Export-oriented industries will collapse if low demand in the export market continues in the next one or two years, observers said.
Economist Arianto Patunru of the Economic and Social Research Institute at the University of Indoensia (LPEM UI) said on Tuesday he was pessimistic about Indonesia's export growth in the next two years.
"Our exports have already dropped. I fear the drop will continue and it will be much felt in the first quarter of 2009 because many orders will be cancelled and payments will be deferred," he said in a discussion.
The cancelled orders and deferred payments would increase export risks and therefore, banks would hesitate to extend credits and raise interest rates and premiums on export credits which would eventually cause difficulties to exporters, he said.
Indonesia's export performance would largely depend on income in the export destinations which influenced their demand for imported goods, he said.
"If this is so, only domestic market-oriented industries which are not much dependent on the export market and imported raw materials will survive in the one or two years," he said.
World Bank economist Sjamsu Rahardja said the country's export growth next year would be hampered not only by low demand but also by tight competition and non-tariff barriers.
"Will our producers be able to meet the qualifications?," he asked.
Sjamsu estimated global demand for export goods would fall by 3-4 percent, the sharpest decline in 20 years.
"We cannot do much to increase our exports. The competitive edge of our exports depends on infrastructure, access to raw materials and access to capital," he added.
Economist Arianto Patunru of the Economic and Social Research Institute at the University of Indoensia (LPEM UI) said on Tuesday he was pessimistic about Indonesia's export growth in the next two years.
"Our exports have already dropped. I fear the drop will continue and it will be much felt in the first quarter of 2009 because many orders will be cancelled and payments will be deferred," he said in a discussion.
The cancelled orders and deferred payments would increase export risks and therefore, banks would hesitate to extend credits and raise interest rates and premiums on export credits which would eventually cause difficulties to exporters, he said.
Indonesia's export performance would largely depend on income in the export destinations which influenced their demand for imported goods, he said.
"If this is so, only domestic market-oriented industries which are not much dependent on the export market and imported raw materials will survive in the one or two years," he said.
World Bank economist Sjamsu Rahardja said the country's export growth next year would be hampered not only by low demand but also by tight competition and non-tariff barriers.
"Will our producers be able to meet the qualifications?," he asked.
Sjamsu estimated global demand for export goods would fall by 3-4 percent, the sharpest decline in 20 years.
"We cannot do much to increase our exports. The competitive edge of our exports depends on infrastructure, access to raw materials and access to capital," he added.
