ID :
23027
Tue, 10/07/2008 - 09:59
Auther :

(EDITORIAL from the Korea Herald on Oct. 7)

Still unclear
North Korean official media reported the public appearance of Kim Jong-il Saturday, breaking a 51-day silence that had touched off wild speculations in the outside world about his health and a possible power vacuum in the totalitarian regime.

And yet, the news release by Pyongyang propagandists on Kim watching a
soccer match between Kim Il-sung University and Pyongyang Railroad College did
not remove all doubts about his condition.
The report released by the Korean Central News Agency and carried by most state
media revealed that "the generalship" -- the most common honorific attached to
(Military Commission) Chairman Kim -- praised the collegiate players. But the
news item was missing a few key elements, such as where and when the soccer match
took place, and there were neither photographs nor video footage of the event. It
even roused speculation that Kim could have watched the game via a TV broadcast.
We may have to wait a few more days until the Oct. 10 anniversary of the North
Korean Workers' Party, an occasion in which Kim has usually made public
appearances in the past. His absence from the 60th anniversary of the DPRK's
foundation on Sept. 9 drew international attention to the North's absolute leader
after incessant reports about his health problems in recent years.
The reason why we in the South and the outside world are so concerned about the
status of the North's chief is that he is solely accountable for all the miseries
there since he took power 14 years ago upon the death of his father Kim Il-sung.
He is responsible for the starvation-level economic adversities, extreme human
rights abuses and the blind pursuit of nuclear armament that further isolated the
regime. Therefore, a North Korea without Kim Jong-il would be easier for the
international community to help and for South Koreans to contemplate
reunification with.
On the other hand, there are realistic considerations related to the consequences
of a transition from decades of absolute rule by a family to an inevitable
collective leadership by an incongruous group, one consisting of the ruler's
ill-prepared children and spouse, as well as former aides from the party and
military. The most-likely eventuality in the event of an implosion in the North
is broad intervention by China in the name of emergency economic aid and
maintaining order.
The long absence of Kim Jong-il from the public prompted Seoul and all concerned
parties to focus their studies on what role China will play if and when the
North's absolute leader exits. The spate of speculation over the past month about
the future of North Korea has taught South Koreans that a collapse of the regime
may not automatically lead to the unification of the Korean Peninsula, which they
had long taken for granted.
The government of President Lee Myung-bak will have to keep closer watch on the
North to gain accurate information on what is taking place there, beyond
confirmation that Kim Jong-il was able to brush his teeth on his own or stand
unaided, which was nearly all its intelligence apparatus offered us during the
past few weeks. Moreover, the government should make attaining international
support for Korean unification its top diplomatic task in the hazy years ahead.
(END)

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