N. Korean leader`s appearance linked to public alienation

SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's report of an appearance by leader Kim
Jong-il, who authorities suspect has been seriously ill, is likely aimed at
preventing public alienation, a Washington-based broadcaster said Sunday.

"Kim Jong-il and other top North Korean officials seem to have concluded that
Kim's long absence due to his illness should not be continued," Radio Free Asia
(RFA) quoted an anonymous Chinese official as saying.
Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Saturday that Kim
watched a college football match. If the report is accurate, it would be Kim's
first public appearance in 51 days, during which speculation arose that he had
suffered a stroke.
North Korean media have been rebroadcasting the report since it was announced.
The RFA, monitored in Seoul, said the Chinese official had recently visited North
Korea and met with Kim Yong-nam, the country's No. 2 leader who serves as
chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly. The official made the
comments in a meeting with Chinese businessmen who engage in trade with North
Korea, according to RFA.
"Public sentiment towards the North Korean government is worse than ever," he was
quoted as saying. He added that food rations were suspended for a long time this
year in Pyongyang, unlike during the food crisis in the mid-1990s when food was
still distributed.
The sense of alienation among Pyongyang's residents most likely placed heavy
burden on the North Korea leader, forcing him to emerge, the official said.
South Korean analysts saw Kim's reported appearance as a message that the
leader's health is sound and that he would soon return to his duties.
"The report of his appearance came just before Oct. 10, which is the founding
anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party. It seems to be a signal to the North
Korean people as well as South Korea and the rest of the world that Kim Jong-il
is still well and sound and will be back," said Kim Keun-sik, a North Korea
expert at Kyungnam University.
However, he added, "it seems that Kim is not able to appear in broadcasts as he
did in the past, suggesting that the North Korean government may be 'managing'
the situation,"
Paik Hak-soon, a specialist at the Sejong Institute, agreed saying: "The report
(of his appearance) was aimed at calming the North Korean people who were worried
or curious about the leader's health."
"I expect that there will be follow-up reports on Kim Jong-il's on-site
inspections or visits," he said.
Paik noted that no abnormality or disorder has been detected in the North Korean
regime, even after rumors circulated of a power shift due to Kim's illness.
Kim's 51-day absence from the public eye is the longest since 2003 when Pyongyang
broke awayfrom the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Kim did not have any
reported public engagements for 49 days that year.
The outside world, including South Korea, has watched North Korea's moves
intently since reports surfaced that its leader was in poor health. Observers
were especially concerned with how the development would affect recent
denuclearization efforts.
In 2007, North Korea signed an aid-for-denuclearization deal with the United
States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia. It began disabling its Yongbyon
nuclear complex late last year in anticipation of one million tons of fuel aid.
But Pyongyang recently backtracked from the deal, blaming the U.S. for refusing
to remove the North from a terrorism blacklist despite its submission of a
nuclear declaration and destruction of a cooling tower at Yongbyon in June.
Kim's reappearance came shorty after the U.S.'s top nuclear envoy wrapped up a
visit to Pyongyang, where he discussed the denuclearization process and tried to
talk the North out of restarting its plutonium-producing reactor.