ID :
21388
Fri, 09/26/2008 - 11:29
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/21388
The shortlink copeid
S. Korea, U.S. urged to make contingency plans for N. Korea's collapse
By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. scholar Thursday urged South Korea to restart negotiations with the United States on a contingency plan for North Korea's collapse amid reports of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health failure.
Victor Cha, director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, said Seoul and
Washington had "well-laid operational plans" to cope with any collapse, implosion
of North Korea or a second invasion from the communist North before South Korea's
previous Roh Moo-hyun government scrapped them for fear of provoking the North.
"Such planning needs to be restarted in earnest and in depth," Cha told a forum
of the Heritage Foundation here. "To date there is only a concept plan to contend
with a collapse or implosion of the regime."
South Korea and the U.S. drew up a joint war scenario called OPLAN 5027 in 2002,
but critics say it lacks action plans to cope with nuclear warfare. North Korea
detonated its first nuclear device in 2006.
Operation plan 5027 also does not address the fact that South Korea will regain
wartime command of its troops by April 2012. The United States has had control of
Korean troops since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950.
The transfer calls for disbandment of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces
Command in charge of carrying out OPLAN 5027, under which the U.S. is to dispatch
hundreds of thousands of troops to the Korean Peninsula in case of an armed
conflict. That would be in addition to the 28,500 troops currently deployed
there.
"The concern at the time by Roh was that such planning could be interpreted by
the North as an active plan to collapse the regime, which would negatively impact
Seoul's much-desired North-South engagement and could impact North Korea's
cooperation in six-party talks," Cha said.
That difference in philosophy between left-leaning Roh and hardline U.S.
President George W. Bush often put their governments in an awkward position,
triggering concerns of a rift in the alliance.
"This author can personally attest that the tone in the relationship between the
White House and Blue House was at times undeniably difficult," said Cha,
formerly senior director for Asian affairs at the White House under the Bush
administration, about the turbulent alliance in the Roh-Bush era.
The scholar advised South Korea to cooperate closely not only with the U.S. but
also with China and Japan in coming up with contingency plans, citing their keen
interests in the Korean Peninsula.
"South Korea might balk at involving so many parties in what Koreans believe to
be their national destiny," he said. "However, a collapse of the North is simply
too significant an event not to warrant international attention, and Koreans
would be best advised to actively engage in such multilateral planning in order
to shape such a plan to (their) own interests and expertise."
The U.S. would be interested in securing nuclear weapons and missiles in the
North, and China should be interested in securing the northern part of North
Korea bordering China, he said.
"Suppose the Chinese military started to create a buffer zone one mile south of
the Yalu River in order to stem refugee flows," he said. "Without advance
coordination, this could be interpreted in any number of ways by the U.S. and ROK
that could easily escalate the crisis."
China and its communist ally North Korea maintain an alliance that stipulates
automatic military involvement in case of a contingency affecting the other.
Theories vary over whether China will actually do that at the risk of its
relations with South Korea and the U.S., key countries that can ensure China's
continued economic development.
Cha said South Koreans' wish for national reunification might be fulfilled sooner
than they expected, citing the failing health of the 66-year-old North Korean
leader and the lack of emergence of his successor.
"Having undergone at least one heart procedure in 2007 and likely another in 2008
based on foreign reports, the Dear Leader's time in office appears limited," he
said. "If not incapacitated already, another stroke could be debilitating, if not
fatal. Unlike the last leadership transition, there is no clear line of
succession to any of his three sons."
None of the three sons is said to have followed the decades-long path that
secured Kim Jong-il as heir apparent to Kim Il-sung, the founding father of North
Korea. The senior Kim died of a heart attack in the summer of 1994.
Kim Jong-il reportedly punished some of his close confidants when they suggested
Kim establish his oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, as his successor. He is said to
fear that an early emergence of a successor might undermine his power as he
witnessed his father losing much of his power in his final years.
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
WASHINGTON, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. scholar Thursday urged South Korea to restart negotiations with the United States on a contingency plan for North Korea's collapse amid reports of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health failure.
Victor Cha, director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, said Seoul and
Washington had "well-laid operational plans" to cope with any collapse, implosion
of North Korea or a second invasion from the communist North before South Korea's
previous Roh Moo-hyun government scrapped them for fear of provoking the North.
"Such planning needs to be restarted in earnest and in depth," Cha told a forum
of the Heritage Foundation here. "To date there is only a concept plan to contend
with a collapse or implosion of the regime."
South Korea and the U.S. drew up a joint war scenario called OPLAN 5027 in 2002,
but critics say it lacks action plans to cope with nuclear warfare. North Korea
detonated its first nuclear device in 2006.
Operation plan 5027 also does not address the fact that South Korea will regain
wartime command of its troops by April 2012. The United States has had control of
Korean troops since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950.
The transfer calls for disbandment of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces
Command in charge of carrying out OPLAN 5027, under which the U.S. is to dispatch
hundreds of thousands of troops to the Korean Peninsula in case of an armed
conflict. That would be in addition to the 28,500 troops currently deployed
there.
"The concern at the time by Roh was that such planning could be interpreted by
the North as an active plan to collapse the regime, which would negatively impact
Seoul's much-desired North-South engagement and could impact North Korea's
cooperation in six-party talks," Cha said.
That difference in philosophy between left-leaning Roh and hardline U.S.
President George W. Bush often put their governments in an awkward position,
triggering concerns of a rift in the alliance.
"This author can personally attest that the tone in the relationship between the
White House and Blue House was at times undeniably difficult," said Cha,
formerly senior director for Asian affairs at the White House under the Bush
administration, about the turbulent alliance in the Roh-Bush era.
The scholar advised South Korea to cooperate closely not only with the U.S. but
also with China and Japan in coming up with contingency plans, citing their keen
interests in the Korean Peninsula.
"South Korea might balk at involving so many parties in what Koreans believe to
be their national destiny," he said. "However, a collapse of the North is simply
too significant an event not to warrant international attention, and Koreans
would be best advised to actively engage in such multilateral planning in order
to shape such a plan to (their) own interests and expertise."
The U.S. would be interested in securing nuclear weapons and missiles in the
North, and China should be interested in securing the northern part of North
Korea bordering China, he said.
"Suppose the Chinese military started to create a buffer zone one mile south of
the Yalu River in order to stem refugee flows," he said. "Without advance
coordination, this could be interpreted in any number of ways by the U.S. and ROK
that could easily escalate the crisis."
China and its communist ally North Korea maintain an alliance that stipulates
automatic military involvement in case of a contingency affecting the other.
Theories vary over whether China will actually do that at the risk of its
relations with South Korea and the U.S., key countries that can ensure China's
continued economic development.
Cha said South Koreans' wish for national reunification might be fulfilled sooner
than they expected, citing the failing health of the 66-year-old North Korean
leader and the lack of emergence of his successor.
"Having undergone at least one heart procedure in 2007 and likely another in 2008
based on foreign reports, the Dear Leader's time in office appears limited," he
said. "If not incapacitated already, another stroke could be debilitating, if not
fatal. Unlike the last leadership transition, there is no clear line of
succession to any of his three sons."
None of the three sons is said to have followed the decades-long path that
secured Kim Jong-il as heir apparent to Kim Il-sung, the founding father of North
Korea. The senior Kim died of a heart attack in the summer of 1994.
Kim Jong-il reportedly punished some of his close confidants when they suggested
Kim establish his oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, as his successor. He is said to
fear that an early emergence of a successor might undermine his power as he
witnessed his father losing much of his power in his final years.
hdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
