N.K. strategizing for more concessions from next U.S. president: adviser

By Kim Boram
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's latest reversal on its denuclearization is a highly calculated move begun in summer to extract more concessions from the next U.S. administration, a foreign policy adviser to U.S. presidential candidate said Thursday.

"We are very unlikely to make more progress in the six-party talks before the new president is elected in January," said Michael Green, Asia policy adviser to
Republican presidential hopeful John McCain, at a parliamentary forum on Asian
culture and economy. "Probably we are going to see things going backward with the
DPRK's reprocessing."
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name of
North Korea.
Green, who teaches international relations at Georgetown University, argued that
North Korea's recent brinkmanship is not accidental or because its leader Kim
Jong-il is ill.
"I think this was the DPRK's plan beginning in June. They know the U.S. won't
lift sanctions any further without verification," he said.
North Korea began backtracking on its denuclearization deal with South Korea, the
U.S., China, Russia and Japan, telling a U.N. nuclear watchdog that it will
reactivate its plutonium reprocessing plant next week.
Renewed tension arose amid reports that Pyongyang's top leader Kim suffered a
stroke last month.
The plant was being disabled as agreed to in the six-nation deal, but Pyongyang
is now believed to be reassembling its reactor. It claims the U.S. broke the
agreement first by not taking the North off its nuclear blacklist, one of the
U.S. incentives provided for in the denuclearization pact.
The U.S. and others at the six-nation talks demand that North agree to measures
to verify its nuclear program.
"They're using time to strengthen their position, and they will then go to the
new administration and demand more concessions to move back to the position they
were in June," Green said. "And I would expect reprocessing plutonium is enough
for one more bomb before the new president is inaugurated."
Green, who served as the senior Asia director of the National Security Council of
the George W. Bush administration, said that the bottom line of McCain's North
Korean policy is democracy and the six-party talks.
But McCain believes that Washington has to give North Korean "some pressure
because Pyongyang would not make a strategic decision based on inducement alone,"
the adviser said.
In regional terms, Green predicted that Washington's strategy on Asia and the
Korean Peninsula will change less than Middle East policy, no matter who is
elected the next U.S. president,
The U.S. position in Asia is still strong, so there is no need to radically
change it, he said, noting the sturdy alliance with Korea, Japan and Australia,
the stable relationship with China, and the closer and strategically transformed
relationship with India.
South Korea, on its part, should expand its "soft power," said Green, and its
hosting of the Asia-Pacific Democracy Partnership meeting next month -- composed
of 16 nations and aimed at encouraging the region's countries to build and
sustain democratic values and institutions -- could be a meaningful venue.
"That's an opportunity for Korea as a democracy to show other transitioning
democracies like Indonesia and Mongolia the strength of the system that Korea
has," said Green, adding this would be a display of Korea's soft power,
indicative of its potential diplomatic, cultural and economic influence on other
countries.
He also recommended that Seoul extend its sphere of activity to other parts of
the world.
"Afghanistan, Pakistan or other areas are far away from the peninsula, but
critical to the international system as a whole," said Green. "I think when Korea
shows its flag and efforts, it increases enormously Korean influence on the
peninsula, in Washington and in Asia."
He expressed support for the free trade agreement (FTA) between Washington and
Seoul, signed in June last year and awaiting for legislative ratification, saying
it is a much better FTA than others and emphasizing that McCain strongly supports
it, while his Democrat rival Barack Obama is against it.
"If Obama wins or McCain wins, they will realize how important this is and find
some way to convince the Congress support it, pass it, and ratify it," Green
said.
But he said that the trade agreement will need adjustment on beef and automobile
issues, which have been some of major reasons why some U.S. lawmakers refuse the
endorse the pact.
brk@yna.co.kr
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