Experts urge contingency plan for collapse of North Korea

SEOUL, Sept. 22 (Yonhap) -- Experts on North Korea said Monday that South Korea should be prepared for a sudden change in the North, whose leader Kim Jong-il is reportedly ill.

"The collapse of North Korea's regime can be triggered by Kim's death or a coup
d'etat, and chances are high that it will lead to unification through South
Korea's absorption (of North Korea)," said Prof. Huh Nam-sung of the Korea
National Defense University at a parliamentary forum on crisis management. "We
need to start the preparations right away."
Speculation about Kim's health intensified after he missed a parade on Sept. 9
commemorating the communist state's 60th founding anniversary. In the past, the
North Korean leader has rarely missed the parade, which is considered a highlight
event.
Experts anticipate that his death will create deep uncertainty over the
leadership of the reclusive country and the Korean Peninsula, where the two sides
have been technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War.
While Kim has disappeared from public view, Pyongyang has started to restore its
nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, saying Washington broke its pledge to remove the
country from its terrorism blacklist.
Huh argued that the year 2012 is critical.
"We have to pay attention to year 2012," he said. "Four years from now, the
presidential elections will be held in both the United States and South Korea,
Seoul will take over wartime operational control of its forces, and China's
democratization will flow into North Korean society."
Since the Korean War, the U.S. has had the wartime operational control of South
Korean troops. Seoul and Washington agreed, as part of their alliance
readjustment, that South Korea will take control of its own forces in April 2012.