ID :
194200
Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:34
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/194200
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University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce forecasts slow export in H2
BANGKOK, July 11 (TNA) - The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects Thai export growth to shrink in the second half of this year due to the rising energy prices.
Aat Pisanwanich, Director of the Center for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the export composite leading index has dropped for four consecutive months to stand at 100.5 points in May, the lowest in eight months period.
“This means Thai export growth may shrink in the third quarter and possibly in the fourth quarter of this year.” he said.
The center projects that Thai export will grow by only 11.3-18.1% in the third quarter and the export growth in the second half of this year will drop to 6.2-12.9%. The export value is forecasted at 108,593-115,483 million US dollars in the second half of this year and the yearly export value is estimated at 221,090-229,125 million US dollars this year. The export growth rate for this year is expected at 13.2-17.3%, compared to 28.1% last year.
Aat said the shrinking export growth will be due to the slowing recovery of the world economy and the rising prices of crude oil and energy in the July to December period.
“The rising prices will increase production and transport costs of Thai exporters as well as labor costs.
However, Thai export will still benefit from the rising prices of farm products and trade expansion in Southeast Asia.” he noted.
He, therefore, urged the new government to let the baht value move freely in line with the market mechanism. (TNA)
Aat Pisanwanich, Director of the Center for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the export composite leading index has dropped for four consecutive months to stand at 100.5 points in May, the lowest in eight months period.
“This means Thai export growth may shrink in the third quarter and possibly in the fourth quarter of this year.” he said.
The center projects that Thai export will grow by only 11.3-18.1% in the third quarter and the export growth in the second half of this year will drop to 6.2-12.9%. The export value is forecasted at 108,593-115,483 million US dollars in the second half of this year and the yearly export value is estimated at 221,090-229,125 million US dollars this year. The export growth rate for this year is expected at 13.2-17.3%, compared to 28.1% last year.
Aat said the shrinking export growth will be due to the slowing recovery of the world economy and the rising prices of crude oil and energy in the July to December period.
“The rising prices will increase production and transport costs of Thai exporters as well as labor costs.
However, Thai export will still benefit from the rising prices of farm products and trade expansion in Southeast Asia.” he noted.
He, therefore, urged the new government to let the baht value move freely in line with the market mechanism. (TNA)
