Seoul Should Remain Calm Outside but Hyper-Attentive Inside

The biggest weakness of one-man rule reveals itself when something critical happens to the ruler, like North Korea these days.

Based on various news reports, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appears unable to
govern his country and may remain so for the time being. Fortunately, there seems
to be no power vacuum or struggle to replace Kim so far, even if we take the
public comments made by the North's second-highest man with a grain of salt.

It comes as somewhat reassuring, too, that Kim Yong-nam, North Korea's nominal
head of state, expressed optimism about progress in multilateral efforts to
denuclearize the isolationist country, to which Washington replied in kind.

Kim may be able to regain health and resume his job either at his office or at
home. Still it would be safe to presume that even if he fully recovers from a
reported stroke, the North Korean leader would no longer be able to function as
he has for the past 14 years. Considering the extremely opaque nature of the
communist state, Seoul should not rule out any possibility.

Nobody outside the reclusive country ¡ª perhaps few even inside it ¡ª can say for
sure where post-Kim Jong-il North Korea is heading. In a worst-case scenario,
some hard-liners in the military could take over and turn the country back a
decade or two.

Backing up such ominous theory is Pyongyang's recent backpedaling in the
denuclearization process, which analysts say coincided with Kim's disappearance
from the public gaze about a month ago as well as some reports about a new
long-range missile pad, which military experts say may be aimed at sending atomic
bombs to the American continent.

All these near-fictitious reports and rumors may be due to uncertainty among
foreigners about Kim Jong-il's exact role or political position in his own
country ¡ª whether he was a reform-minded soft-liner or a brutal dictator driving
North Korea to potential nuclear warfare. If the former is true, South Korea and
the rest of the world need to be on alert.

Another possible scenario for which Seoul should prepare for is North Korea's
implosion amid leadership confusion. This requires close communication not only
with Pyongyang but also with the key regional players. This is why Kim's stroke
couldn't come at a worse time and Seoul as well as the Lee Myung-bak
administration should hurry to reopen contact points ¡ª official or unofficial ¡ª
with the North.

More difficult for government officials, Seoul must do so without provoking
Pyongyang or unnecessarily alerting any regional powers. It could start with more
positive offers of food aid, and withdrawing some preconditions it has set, such
as the North's apology for the tourist-killing incident. This is the time to look
far wider and longer into the inter-Korean relationship.

President Lee and his government may soon face their biggest diplomatic test of
having to show their ability to not only control the enormous changes on the
Korean Peninsula but also persuade the North about Seoul's sincerity for joint
survival and co-prosperity, the two keywords Lee recently proposed in
relationship between the two Koreas.

Officials say Seoul will have to wait and see what develops for the time being.
Underneath such calm, however, they must make necessary preparations for every
possible scenario, as the next several months could prove to be vital for the
fate of all Koreans.