ID :
190501
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 16:43
Auther :

KASB Securities Limited and Economics Research- Commodities Corner

According to KASB Securities Limited,

• Gold managed to close higher on Tuesday as the newly formed Greek cabinet survived a fresh vote of confidence.

• From a technical perspective, gold’s Stochastic Oscillator maintains its uptrend as well as buy signal while the RSI continues to show improvement.

• The first support is at $1,540.07 and second support is at $1,534.00. The first resistance is at $1,552.80 and the second resistance is at $1,558.87.

Greece averts collapse of new cabinet

The newly formed Greek cabinet survived a vote of confidence amid protests in the streets as law makers battled to adopt new reform measures. The Euro subsequently booked gains (+0.8% vs. USD) as markets averted a major negative development. While hopes resurfaced that a default would be averted, investors continued to view the situation precariously. This proved to be the underlying factor for a bullish run on gold as traders remained sceptical about the new cabinet’s ability to approve austerity measures. In the coming weeks, a deeply unpopular package of structural reforms will be presented to the Greek parliament and its approval will be a prerequisite to securing additional aid from the EU and IMF.

Technical Strategy: Buy

Gold maintained its uptrend and closed in the green. The Stochastic Oscillator maintains its uptrend as well as its buy signal while the RSI continues to show improvement. Moreover the MACD has started to show improvement and is about to generate a buy signal. The first support is at $1,540.07 and second support is at $1,534.00. The first resistance is at $1,552.80 and the second resistance is at $1,558.87.

WTI Spot (Crude Oil)

• Profit taking out of the Brent‐WTI spread remained the core driver for US crude to book gains.

• From a technical perspective, WTI’s Stochastic Oscillator has generated a buy signal while extremely oversold and the RSI has bottomed out.

• The first support is at $92.84 and second support at $92.27. The first resistance is at $93.92 and the second resistance is at $94.48.

Crude gains on spread sell off

Profit taking out of the Brent‐WTI spread remained the core driver for US crude to book gains as Brent headed further south with the differential narrowing to ~$17/bbl. In earlier trading, WTI had dipped on concerns of waning demand after the IMF warned Spain that it was facing similar risks along the lines of Greece and needed to correct itself swiftly. Apart from this, weekly crude oil inventory data is due today and markets are expecting a decline of 0.1mn barrels. However the possibility of any further poor readings remains a downside risk.

Technical Strategy: Buy

WTI continued to show improvement and maintain a gradual uptrend. The Stochastic Oscillator has generated a buy signal while extremely oversold and the RSI has bottomed out. This potentially hints at the completion of the corrective cycle and the start of the recovery phase. The first support is at $92.84 and second support at $92.27. The first resistance is at $93.92 and the second resistance is at $94.48.

Silver Spot

• Silver maintained its upward trajectory posting a third green session as markets await the outcome of the FOMC meeting today.

• From a technical perspective, silver continued on its uptrend and closed above its 30‐DMA. The Stochastic Oscillator maintains its’ uptrend as well as its buy signal while the RSI continues to show improvement as well.

• The first support is at $35.81 and second support at $35.24. The first resistance is at $36.78 and the second resistance is at $37.25.

Silver outperforms gold on the upside

Silver maintained its upward trajectory posting a third green session as markets await the outcome of the FOMC meeting today. Wall Street indices also rallied (Dow +0.9%, S&P +1.3%) as events in Greece spurred hopes that a default would be prevented. Investors are likely to view numbers for New Industrial Orders m/m today as they may have a potential bearing on silver.

Technical Strategy: Buy

Silver continued on its uptrend and closed above its 30‐DMA. The Stochastic Oscillator maintains its uptrend as well as its’ buy signal while the RSI continues to show improvement as well. Moreover the MACD has now conformed to an uptrend while maintaining its buy signal. The first support is at $35.81 and second support at $35.24. The first resistance is at $36.78 and the second resistance is at $37.25

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