ID :
160468
Sat, 02/12/2011 - 09:55
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http://m.oananews.org//node/160468
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Weather extremes made 2010 very special - chief meteorologist.
MOSCOW, February 12 (Itar-Tass) -- Last year was a very special one from the standpoint of the number and duration of extreme natural
phenomena. The best assessment of the good job done by the federal service for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring (Rosgidromet) last year is the people were not angry with the weather forecasters, despite all the climatic extremes, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, said at an enlarged meeting of the Rosgidromet board this week.
He said that according to opinion polls, most people will remember
2010 mostly for its weather. "If the meteorological support in such
circumstances fails to rise to the occasion, those responsible are very many, as a rule. The fact that the meteorologists drew no harsh criticism shows a high level of the service."
The director of the Hydrometeorological Center, which is an affiliate of Rosgidromet, attributed the extreme loyalty of the population with respect to the forecasters to the fact that last year Russia's weather watching service made a number of significant steps towards "the development of modern methods of forecasting." There were introduced interactive models of weather development, said Vilfand. This alone achieved a higher accuracy of precipitation forecasts than that achieved by the leading centers in the world.
"Temperatures were well-predicted. For the first time ever experiments were performed using radar data, which open up great prospects for the further improvement of forecasting," he said.
"For the first time ever there was implemented a very important
element - the task of data assimilation," said the meteorologist. "This is a very difficult task, but its solution can improve the quality of forecasting for global projections."
According to data quoted by the head of Rosgidromet, Alexander Frolov, the quality of forecasts last year increased significantly. "The quality of short-term forecasts is rather high," he said. "For one day ahead the accuracy is 96 percent. Storm warnings came true in 92 percent of cases."
By the forecasts of precipitation for 30 hours in advance Russia with its 82 percent even went ahead of all of the world's meteorological powers - the U.S., Britain, Germany and Japan. "The quality of forecasts in the Russian Federation is the best among the developed countries," said Frolov.
At the same time Vilfand warned that these successes have posed a
problem - overestimation of the weather watching service capabilities. "On the one hand, today' reproaches it began snowing in Moscow two hours later than it was predicted may sound like sweet music to us," he said, to cause a merry stir in the audience of specialists. "But on the other hand such high expectations are dangerous, because any misstep begins to be perceived super-critically."
To further reduce the risk of such lapses the Rosgidromet staff should further upgrade the monitoring network. This is the main task for 2011, said Frolov.
phenomena. The best assessment of the good job done by the federal service for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring (Rosgidromet) last year is the people were not angry with the weather forecasters, despite all the climatic extremes, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, said at an enlarged meeting of the Rosgidromet board this week.
He said that according to opinion polls, most people will remember
2010 mostly for its weather. "If the meteorological support in such
circumstances fails to rise to the occasion, those responsible are very many, as a rule. The fact that the meteorologists drew no harsh criticism shows a high level of the service."
The director of the Hydrometeorological Center, which is an affiliate of Rosgidromet, attributed the extreme loyalty of the population with respect to the forecasters to the fact that last year Russia's weather watching service made a number of significant steps towards "the development of modern methods of forecasting." There were introduced interactive models of weather development, said Vilfand. This alone achieved a higher accuracy of precipitation forecasts than that achieved by the leading centers in the world.
"Temperatures were well-predicted. For the first time ever experiments were performed using radar data, which open up great prospects for the further improvement of forecasting," he said.
"For the first time ever there was implemented a very important
element - the task of data assimilation," said the meteorologist. "This is a very difficult task, but its solution can improve the quality of forecasting for global projections."
According to data quoted by the head of Rosgidromet, Alexander Frolov, the quality of forecasts last year increased significantly. "The quality of short-term forecasts is rather high," he said. "For one day ahead the accuracy is 96 percent. Storm warnings came true in 92 percent of cases."
By the forecasts of precipitation for 30 hours in advance Russia with its 82 percent even went ahead of all of the world's meteorological powers - the U.S., Britain, Germany and Japan. "The quality of forecasts in the Russian Federation is the best among the developed countries," said Frolov.
At the same time Vilfand warned that these successes have posed a
problem - overestimation of the weather watching service capabilities. "On the one hand, today' reproaches it began snowing in Moscow two hours later than it was predicted may sound like sweet music to us," he said, to cause a merry stir in the audience of specialists. "But on the other hand such high expectations are dangerous, because any misstep begins to be perceived super-critically."
To further reduce the risk of such lapses the Rosgidromet staff should further upgrade the monitoring network. This is the main task for 2011, said Frolov.
