ID :
159055
Sun, 02/06/2011 - 10:21
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/159055
The shortlink copeid
There is still work to be done
Vladimir Manvelov, Itar-Tass Observer
Positively, there is something wrong about our economy's organism. The new swelling may cause a big confusion. No allegories here, in fact. All artistic images vain as the inflation data images change each other like kaleidoscope patterns. Remember, 'inflation' comes from Latin 'inflatio', which is nothing else but swelling.
The level of inflation in January brought Minister of Economic
Development to a deadlock.
On January 20, following the government's meeting, she declared to
reporters that the ministry forecast January's inflation at 1.8-1.9
percent.
"We shall hope it will not reach two percent," she said. However, just several minutes later she changed the forecast for a sadder scenario of 2.1-2.3 percent. And still, even with the existing growth of food prices in January, which resulted in inflation higher than it was last year, the ministry is not going to reconsider its annual forecast.
"We expect the inflation flow will slow down over the first six months and the rest of the year. We do not see reasons to revise the forecast of seven percent a year," she persisted.
Presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich would not revise the forecast
either.
"There was no doubt the measures the government has planned to lower the inflation would not start working in January; it is necessary to see at the end of a quarter not a month if they are working or not," he explained.
Yet, the ministry's forecast was ruined by Rosstat on February 2: the inflation in January made 2.4 percent.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin says optimistically that inflation in Russia will slow down.
"Over the first six months the inflation, sure, will be above our
estimation, but over the second half of the year we shall be able to
stabilise /it/ and even to have it decline," he told reporters on the
sidelines of the Russia-2011 Forum, organised by the Troika Dialog
investment company.
Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Andrei Klepach, is less
optimistic. He believes that in 2011 the inflation may be above the plan by one percent reaching 7-8 percent and even "may exceed 7-8 percent."
Food prices are the inflation's main causes. Within 2010, they grew by 12.9 percent. The country evidences "crawling inflation of food prices" which "showed dangerous trends in January", Deputy Head of Russia's Federal Anti-Monopoly Service /FAS/ Andrei Tsyganov said.
To a big extent the reason for that originates from poor crops of the past year.
"The crop of buckwheat, for example, was about by 40 percent lower, that of potatoes - by a third," he said. "It is rather difficult to compensate a loss of the kind - they are food products which may not be compensated by import." In his forecast, spring will be the most difficult time, and later on prices may stop growing or even may go down, but this will happen "only as the drought effect expires and new crops come to the market."
No doubt, at some point the "drought effect" will expire positively, but here are some new factors, which speed up the inflation.
From January 1, electricity tariffs grew by 10.1-13.6 percent. Private consumers pay by 15 percent more for gas. Housing and maintenance costs are by an average of 16-20 percent higher now.
The new monopolistic-high prices for motor-car fuel make FAS suspect the country's oil companies violate the anti-monopoly legislation.
"As the diesel fuel is more expensive than oil 92 or 95 /popular
motor-car fuel/, it is highly probable that there is some violation here, and most consumers do suspect so," FAS' Head Igor Artemyev said. He promised that by February 10 the agency will make a decision about opening possible cases against oil companies for the fuel high prices, since those, via the agricultural sector, "set a trend for the development of Russia's' economy for the whole year."
The protectionism, which feels very comfortably in our life, is
another factor to influence domestic prices. Even AVTOVAZ, which works in green-house environment, raises retail prices. Ladas prices gain four percent. As yet, though. If the plant fails to negotiate metal prices /with Severstal/, it may continue raising prices for cars, which most Russians have to drive.
The corruption component in Russia's all prices is something not to be left out, too. Experts claim corruption-related losses in year 2010 only exceeded 12 billion roubles.
It seems, victory over inflation is way too far. In the meanwhile high inflation devalues salaries and pensions, and the real economy sector cannot afford credits.
In the past year, inflation initially was forecast at about 7-8
percent also, but in the long run the drought raised it to 8.8 percent.
This is exactly what Minister Elvira Nabiullina told the government on
January 13. "There is still work to be done," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin summarised then.
Positively, there is something wrong about our economy's organism. The new swelling may cause a big confusion. No allegories here, in fact. All artistic images vain as the inflation data images change each other like kaleidoscope patterns. Remember, 'inflation' comes from Latin 'inflatio', which is nothing else but swelling.
The level of inflation in January brought Minister of Economic
Development to a deadlock.
On January 20, following the government's meeting, she declared to
reporters that the ministry forecast January's inflation at 1.8-1.9
percent.
"We shall hope it will not reach two percent," she said. However, just several minutes later she changed the forecast for a sadder scenario of 2.1-2.3 percent. And still, even with the existing growth of food prices in January, which resulted in inflation higher than it was last year, the ministry is not going to reconsider its annual forecast.
"We expect the inflation flow will slow down over the first six months and the rest of the year. We do not see reasons to revise the forecast of seven percent a year," she persisted.
Presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich would not revise the forecast
either.
"There was no doubt the measures the government has planned to lower the inflation would not start working in January; it is necessary to see at the end of a quarter not a month if they are working or not," he explained.
Yet, the ministry's forecast was ruined by Rosstat on February 2: the inflation in January made 2.4 percent.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin says optimistically that inflation in Russia will slow down.
"Over the first six months the inflation, sure, will be above our
estimation, but over the second half of the year we shall be able to
stabilise /it/ and even to have it decline," he told reporters on the
sidelines of the Russia-2011 Forum, organised by the Troika Dialog
investment company.
Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Andrei Klepach, is less
optimistic. He believes that in 2011 the inflation may be above the plan by one percent reaching 7-8 percent and even "may exceed 7-8 percent."
Food prices are the inflation's main causes. Within 2010, they grew by 12.9 percent. The country evidences "crawling inflation of food prices" which "showed dangerous trends in January", Deputy Head of Russia's Federal Anti-Monopoly Service /FAS/ Andrei Tsyganov said.
To a big extent the reason for that originates from poor crops of the past year.
"The crop of buckwheat, for example, was about by 40 percent lower, that of potatoes - by a third," he said. "It is rather difficult to compensate a loss of the kind - they are food products which may not be compensated by import." In his forecast, spring will be the most difficult time, and later on prices may stop growing or even may go down, but this will happen "only as the drought effect expires and new crops come to the market."
No doubt, at some point the "drought effect" will expire positively, but here are some new factors, which speed up the inflation.
From January 1, electricity tariffs grew by 10.1-13.6 percent. Private consumers pay by 15 percent more for gas. Housing and maintenance costs are by an average of 16-20 percent higher now.
The new monopolistic-high prices for motor-car fuel make FAS suspect the country's oil companies violate the anti-monopoly legislation.
"As the diesel fuel is more expensive than oil 92 or 95 /popular
motor-car fuel/, it is highly probable that there is some violation here, and most consumers do suspect so," FAS' Head Igor Artemyev said. He promised that by February 10 the agency will make a decision about opening possible cases against oil companies for the fuel high prices, since those, via the agricultural sector, "set a trend for the development of Russia's' economy for the whole year."
The protectionism, which feels very comfortably in our life, is
another factor to influence domestic prices. Even AVTOVAZ, which works in green-house environment, raises retail prices. Ladas prices gain four percent. As yet, though. If the plant fails to negotiate metal prices /with Severstal/, it may continue raising prices for cars, which most Russians have to drive.
The corruption component in Russia's all prices is something not to be left out, too. Experts claim corruption-related losses in year 2010 only exceeded 12 billion roubles.
It seems, victory over inflation is way too far. In the meanwhile high inflation devalues salaries and pensions, and the real economy sector cannot afford credits.
In the past year, inflation initially was forecast at about 7-8
percent also, but in the long run the drought raised it to 8.8 percent.
This is exactly what Minister Elvira Nabiullina told the government on
January 13. "There is still work to be done," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin summarised then.
