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154356
Wed, 12/22/2010 - 13:54
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http://m.oananews.org//node/154356
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CGES again upgrades oil price forecast for 2011
London, Dec 22, IRNA -- Oil prices are most likely to approach $100 per barrel (dpb) in 2011, according to latest forecast from Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES).
In its latest monthly world oil report obtained by IRNA, the London-based center predicted in its reference case that the average price of dated North Sea benchmark crude would reach an average of $97.1 by the third quarter of next year.
Its latest annual forecast of a $93.4 average for 2011 is the second consecutive monthly increase from CGES and is up by almost $10 since October. It also compares with an annual average of $79.7 expected for this year.
The reference case is based upon an estimated 1.6% growth in oil demand in 2011, almost half the 3% increase expected this year to 87.4 million barrels per day (mbpd), which is above the previous peak in 2007 of 86.4 mbpd.
At the same time, CGES said it expected that this year’s rise in non-OPEC production, along with the output of OPEC NGLs, to slow down to around 1 mbpd next year, around half of this year’s growth.
OPEC production was also expected to increase by 1 mbpd, but in a higher price scenario, its output could stay flat and result in oil prices reaching an average of $113 by the third quarter of 2011.
“This outcome is very possible, given that the Organisation decided at the Quito summit (this month) to do nothing, even if prices breach the $100/bbl mark,” it said. A similar result, it suggested, could also come from disruption in Iraq or Nigeria.
A third possibility was that oil prices could tumble toward $75 if OPEC is right and the world does not need more of its crude next year, CGES said./end
In its latest monthly world oil report obtained by IRNA, the London-based center predicted in its reference case that the average price of dated North Sea benchmark crude would reach an average of $97.1 by the third quarter of next year.
Its latest annual forecast of a $93.4 average for 2011 is the second consecutive monthly increase from CGES and is up by almost $10 since October. It also compares with an annual average of $79.7 expected for this year.
The reference case is based upon an estimated 1.6% growth in oil demand in 2011, almost half the 3% increase expected this year to 87.4 million barrels per day (mbpd), which is above the previous peak in 2007 of 86.4 mbpd.
At the same time, CGES said it expected that this year’s rise in non-OPEC production, along with the output of OPEC NGLs, to slow down to around 1 mbpd next year, around half of this year’s growth.
OPEC production was also expected to increase by 1 mbpd, but in a higher price scenario, its output could stay flat and result in oil prices reaching an average of $113 by the third quarter of 2011.
“This outcome is very possible, given that the Organisation decided at the Quito summit (this month) to do nothing, even if prices breach the $100/bbl mark,” it said. A similar result, it suggested, could also come from disruption in Iraq or Nigeria.
A third possibility was that oil prices could tumble toward $75 if OPEC is right and the world does not need more of its crude next year, CGES said./end
