Bentleigh holds key to power in Victoria

A massive voter backlash is almost certain to unseat the Victorian Labor government
as the coalition inches closer to victory.
Almost 24 hours after polls closed, the result has yet to be declared, but is likely
to hinge on counting of early votes in the suburban seat of Bentleigh, where the
coalition is close to claiming the 45th seat it needs for majority government.
A defiant Premier John Brumby was refusing to concede defeat on Sunday and will wait
until a record 550,000 early votes have been counted.
But the Liberal-Nationals are growing in confidence that the election is theirs and
are poised to end Labor's 11-year reign.
With three quarters of the vote counted, the coalition has won as many as 44 of the
88 upper house seats. At best Labor has 43.
A downcast Mr Brumby admitted it was "extremely unlikely" Labor would achieve
majority government, but said he won't concede defeat until all pre-poll votes are
counted, which will not happen until Monday at the earliest.
"I think the most likely outcome is a hung parliament, the next most likely outcome
is a coalition victory," he said.
"I'm as keen as anybody, for obvious reasons, to get a clear result to the election,
but to be fair we've got 550,000 votes that haven't been counted."
"I think it would be the height of disrespect actually to the people of Victoria to
call a result as close as this without counting half a million votes."
Nationals leader Peter Ryan said the premier was "in complete and utter denial" and
the coalition was ready to lead.
"Labor cannot form government," he told reporters.
"I think it (the election) has destroyed the legitimacy of this government.
"It has certainly damaged beyond recovery the authority of John Brumby as the
premier of this state."
The Victorian Electoral Commission took the unusual step of counting early votes in
the seat of Bentleigh on Sunday in a bid to break the deadlock.
Liberal candidate Elizabeth Miller was leading by 213 votes at the close of counting
on election night against Labor's Rob Hudson.
Also under threat are Eltham, held by Labor by 225 votes, and Ballarat East, on a
margin of 388 votes.
Counting of early votes in electorates outside Bentleigh will not start until Monday.
Monash University politics lecturer Nick Economou said it was likely the coalition
would win with a small majority, avoiding a hung parliament and the prospect of a
re-election.
"Where we were at last night in the tally room, the view amongst the collective
wizards was that the Liberals are one short of an absolute majority and it all
revolves around Bentleigh," he told AAP.
Mr Brumby, who had hoped to be elected premier in his own right, said he was
obviously disappointed but was happy with Labor's campaign and wouldn't have made
any changes.
He put the large swing against Labor (about 6.2 per cent) down to "wear and tear" of
an 11-year-old government and said the coalition had made big impact election
policies in the last week of the campaign, including stamp duty cuts, that he
considered unaffordable.
Cost of living pressures, interest rate hikes and transport, including the myki
ticketing fiasco, had also swayed voters, he said.