Swing to Vic opposition in early counting

Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs are already proving pivotal in an early swing to
the coalition in the Victorian election.
Within two hours of polls closing, a significant swing towards the opposition is
emerging in the marginal Labor seats of Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill and
Mitcham.
The coalition is also looking likely to snatch South Barwon off the government,
while the Nationals could give the opposition another seat by taking Gippsland East
from independent Craig Ingram.
Ted Baillieu's opposition needs to take 13 seats off Labor to claim power.
With nearly a third of the vote counted in Gembrook, the seat looks like it will be
the first to fall to the coalition with the Liberals' Brad Battin holding 56.98 per
cent to the Labor party's Tommy Lobato on 43.02 per cent.
Minister for Children Maxine Morand also appears to have lost Mount Waverley.
She has 39.77 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, well behind Liberal
candidate Michael Gidley's 60.23 per cent, with about 29 per cent of votes counted.
"It looks like there is certainly a swing to the Liberal Party in Mount Waverley and
when you're on a margin of .3, a swing means a loss," Ms Morand told the ABC.
"Unfortunately it looks at this early stage, although it's only primary votes in a
few booths that have come in at this point, but if there's a swing on it's going to
be very difficult to hold."
In Forest Hill, held by former Olympic skier Kirstie Marshall by a margin of .78,
Liberal candidate Neil Angus has 2546 votes to Ms Marshall's 1957 with a quarter of
the votes counted.
Liberal candidate Dee Ryall had a significant advantage over Gaming Minister Tony
Robinson in Mitcham after only eight per cent of votes were counted.
In Gippsland East, with 46 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Ingram is trailing 37-63
against the Nationals' candidate Tim Bull.
The Liberal Party's Andrew Katos is also heading towards victory over Labor
incumbent Michael Crutchfield in South Barwon in Geelong, with 52.72 per cent of the
vote to 47.28.
Liberal heavyweight Peter Reith believes the coalition will win South Barwon.
"If we don't win South Barwon, I'll be pretty disappointed, we should do alright
down there," he told Sky News.
In Ballarat East, Labor MP Geoff Howard is trailing against the Liberals' Ben
Taylor, 45-55, with 30 per cent of the vote counted.
A Sky News exit poll of more than 3000 voters across 18 marginal seats shows the
coalition will claim victory, with 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to
Labor's 46.
Federal Labor MP Bill Shorten admits it is difficult for a long-term government to
hold on to power.
"There's clearly a swing on, is there enough of a swing in enough of the seats to
defeat John Brumby?" Mr Shorten told Sky News.
"It seems the voters are going for something new, something different, be it a
dinner party vote for the Greens ... or going for the Libs.
"After 11 years, it is difficult for a government to be elected."
But he wouldn't concede the election to Mr Baillieu.
"I still think there's a lot of fight left in this," he said.