Victoria poised for election cliffhanger

Victoria is facing an election cliffhanger with the Liberal-Nationals given a real
chance of snatching government from Labor.
On election eve, the coalition inched ahead of the ALP in the polls for the first
time, threatening to end Labor's hopes of a record fourth consecutive term.
The Morgan poll of almost 1,000 voters has the coalition poised for victory with 51
per cent of the two-party preferred vote, against Labor's 49 per cent.
One day out from the poll that will determine who governs Victoria for the next four
years, it was a bruising reality check for John Brumby, who is counting on being
elected premier in his own right.
A Galaxy Poll, published hours earlier, has the 11-year-old Labor government neck
and neck with the coalition on 50-50, opening up the prospects of a hung parliament.
Either way, Greens preferences will play a crucial role in the election outcome.
Labor is almost certain to lose seats in Melbourne's eastern suburbs and regional
Victoria. How many will depend on the size of the swing to the coalition.
The Liberals need 13 seats to win government, or a swing of about 6.5 per cent.
If Labor loses 11 seats it will lose its majority and potentially be forced into a
power-sharing deal with the Greens, who are hoping to win their first lower house
seat in the Victorian parliament.
Labor has 55 of the 88 lower house seats, the coalition 32 and an independent 1.
Mr Brumby spent the dying hours of the campaign on the hustings in Oakleigh, in
Melbourne's southeast, and in Bendigo and Ballarat.
He said the election would go down to the wire.
"I think it'll be close. I hope we get a result tomorrow night," he said.
"I don't claim that everything we've done in government is perfect, but I believe
we've got the state headed in the right direction and we will keep it headed in the
right direction in the future."
Mr Baillieu spent the day campaigning in the Labor marginals in the eastern suburbs,
starting bright and early at Prahran Market.
He then met with a mothers' group and their toddlers at Patterson Lakes, before
addressing a pensioners' group in Forest Hill.
The Liberal leader refused to entertain the idea of the coalition forming a minority
government with the Greens or independents and agreed the result would be close.
"Everywhere we go, Victorians are telling us they are looking for a change," Mr
Baillieu said.
"It's a clear choice between a stable coalition and an uncertain Labor/Greens
alliance."
The Greens have preferenced Labor in 13 out of 15 lower house seats, in return for
preferences in five out of the eight upper house regions.
They will likely be kingmakers in a potentially hung parliament.
But their chances of winning a clutch of Labor-held inner city seats are not as good
as they would have been if they had secured Liberal preferences.
Greens MP Greg Barber was talking up the party's election chances.
The Greens believe they can double their numbers in the upper house to six.
"Our primary vote's going up," Mr Barber said.
"I'm very hopeful that we'll get extra Greens in the parliament."
Monash University politics lecturer Nick Economou predicts Labor will win with a
comfortable majority, but he said the government could lose up to nine seats on the
back of a two to three per cent swing.



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