Coalition MPs set for return in Qld

A host of former Liberal MPs look set to return to the parliament as the coalition
races ahead of Labor in a swag of crucial marginal seats in Queensland.
In early counting, the signs weren't good for Labor as several seats looked likely
to fall to the coalition.
In Brisbane, Labor's Arch Bevis was facing a nailbiting contest against the LNP's
Teresa Gambaro.
On a two-party preferred basis - with 9.68 per cent of the voted counted - Mr Bevis
was behind of 49.12 per cent of the vote.
In the seat of Leichhardt, former Liberal MP Warren Entsch was expected to take the
seat back from Labor's Jim Turnour.
With 4.75 per cent of the two-party preferred vote counted, Mr Entsch had 58.41 per
cent of the vote, a swing of more than 12 per cent.
Labor's Kerry Rea was also behind in the seat of Bonner, where she was facing a
swing against her of seven per cent.
With seven per cent of the two party preferred vote counted, she was on 47.41 per
cent of the vote.
She is up against the LNP's Ross Vasta, who lost the seat in 2007.
Nationally, Labor was showing a swing against it of three per cent on 47.03 per
cent, after the distribution of preferences.
The coalition was on 53.97 per cent of the vote.
A swag of marginals in western Sydney and Queensland expected to determine the
outcome of the extremely tight poll.
The latest Newspoll, published in the Australian newspaper, had Labor with 50.2 per
cent support against 49.8 per cent to the coalition after the distribution of
preferences.
The coalition needs 17 Labor seats to win the election by garnering a uniform swing
of 2.3 per cent across the country. But the government can lose its absolute
majority if it loses 13 seats.
With 13 per cent of the vote counted, the Australian Electoral Commission had called
51 seats for Labor, 45 for the coalition and three for independent candidates.
It had 51 still in doubt.
ABC election analyst Antony Green believes Labor would lose at least six seats to
the coalition.
"I've got the coalition ahead in 13 other Labor seats, which brings you to 19," he
said.
"I've got Labor gaining one seat, McEwen, and ahead in La Trobe. So at this stage
there's a net shift of 17 seats, now that's still too close to call, some of those
seats are doubtful but that means, at this stage, we'll be here for a long time
yet."
Currently there are swings against Labor in eight key marginals in Queensland and
two in NSW.
Labor is in serious trouble in Macquarie in Sydney's west, where current Liberal
Greenway MP Louise Markus is running following a redistribution.
With 12.7 per cent of the vote counted, there's a 3.26 per cent swing to the Liberal
candidate Susan Templeman on a two-party preferred basis.
Labor notionally holds the seat by just 0.3 per cent following a redistribution.
In Sydney, former ABC journalist Maxine McKew is down in her fight to retain former
prime minister John Howard's seat from the challenge of prominent former tennis
player and commentator John Alexander.
With 20.4 per cent of the ballots tallied, there's a 6.9 per cent swing against Ms
McKew on a two-party preferred basis. She holds the seat by a margin of just 1.4 per
cent.
Flynn in Queensland also looks like tumbling to the coalition.
With 32.2 per cent of the vote counted, there's been a 6.15 per cent swing against
Labor to the LNP's Ken O'Dowd.
Sitting MP Chris Trevor holds the seat by just 2.2 per cent.
The central Queensland seat of Dawson is another where Labor trails.
With 27.3 per cent of the vote counted, there's a swing against the government of
4.2 per cent. Dawson is held by retiring Labor MP James Bidgood by just 2.6 per
cent. The LNP candidate George Christensen is up against Labor's new candidate Mike
Brunker.
In Forde, another key Queensland marginal, there's been a 7.18 per cent swing
against Labor on a two-party basis with 37.1 per cent of the vote counted.
Sitting MP Brett Raguse looks in serious trouble, although his LNP opponent Bert Van
Manen is yet to crack open the champagne.