ID :
138393
Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:01
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http://m.oananews.org//node/138393
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UTCC raises Thailand's 2010 growth forecast to 6.9%
BANGKOK, Aug 19 -- The Thai economy in 2010 will grow 6.9 per cent, higher than the earlier forecast at 4-4.5 per cent, due to growing exports resulting from domestic and global economic recovery, according to the director of the Economic and Business Forecasting Center of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
The projection is based on the UTCC assumption that the Thai economy in the third quarter of this year will grow by 5.1 per cent, which is the upward trend continuing from last year's fourth quarter, according to director Thanawat Polvichai.
He said the higher demand of Thai goods in world markets will enhance the overall exports in the third quarter to continually grow compared to the first half of this year despite a possible slow expansion rate.
Agricultural products together with automotive industry goods, steel, electronic appliances, and electronics are in demand for world consumers.
Exports are predicted to grow at 10.5 per cent, which will result in a 20-25 per cent expansion for this year's export values compared to 2009, or counting around over US$184 billion, which is a positive balance of trade by more than US$11.8 billion.
Overseas markets with economic expansion for Thai merchandise in the first half of this year were the United States with 24.6 per cent, compared to the deficit of 27.1 per cent last year, Japan of 32.1 per cent, European Union of 25.5 per cent, China of 47.8 per cent, and the Middle East of 15.5 per cent.
Dr Thanawat said not only was Thailand's 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast revised upward, but also the Thailand Industries Sentiment Index in the third quarter would remain stable and positive unless strongly affected by political and economic factors as well as oil prices.
He viewed that consumption in 2010 will expand 3.8 per cent year-on-year.
Concerning tourism, he said foreign travellers were more confident in visiting Thailand after the political landscape returned to normal. The figure was predicted at 3.43 million visitors in the third quarter, or a 4.5-per cent growth, to generate more than Bt126 billion, or an increase of 6.89 per cent compared to the same period last year.
The number of tourist arrivals for 2010 is expected at more than 14.6 million, or an increase of 3.65 per cent year-on-year, for revenues forecast at Bt539 billion, or a growth of 6.02 per cent.
For Thailand's 2011 economy, Dr Thanawat said dependence on domestic economy and travel industry are main factors to consider Thailand's GDP along with situations of the US economy, which is still not recovering well, and public debts of European countries.
If there are more than 16 million tourists entering Thailand next year, the country's GDP should expand at 4-5 per cent, with exports expected to increase at 8-13 per cent and the inflation rate to rise to 3.5-4.5 per cent. (MCOT online news)
The projection is based on the UTCC assumption that the Thai economy in the third quarter of this year will grow by 5.1 per cent, which is the upward trend continuing from last year's fourth quarter, according to director Thanawat Polvichai.
He said the higher demand of Thai goods in world markets will enhance the overall exports in the third quarter to continually grow compared to the first half of this year despite a possible slow expansion rate.
Agricultural products together with automotive industry goods, steel, electronic appliances, and electronics are in demand for world consumers.
Exports are predicted to grow at 10.5 per cent, which will result in a 20-25 per cent expansion for this year's export values compared to 2009, or counting around over US$184 billion, which is a positive balance of trade by more than US$11.8 billion.
Overseas markets with economic expansion for Thai merchandise in the first half of this year were the United States with 24.6 per cent, compared to the deficit of 27.1 per cent last year, Japan of 32.1 per cent, European Union of 25.5 per cent, China of 47.8 per cent, and the Middle East of 15.5 per cent.
Dr Thanawat said not only was Thailand's 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast revised upward, but also the Thailand Industries Sentiment Index in the third quarter would remain stable and positive unless strongly affected by political and economic factors as well as oil prices.
He viewed that consumption in 2010 will expand 3.8 per cent year-on-year.
Concerning tourism, he said foreign travellers were more confident in visiting Thailand after the political landscape returned to normal. The figure was predicted at 3.43 million visitors in the third quarter, or a 4.5-per cent growth, to generate more than Bt126 billion, or an increase of 6.89 per cent compared to the same period last year.
The number of tourist arrivals for 2010 is expected at more than 14.6 million, or an increase of 3.65 per cent year-on-year, for revenues forecast at Bt539 billion, or a growth of 6.02 per cent.
For Thailand's 2011 economy, Dr Thanawat said dependence on domestic economy and travel industry are main factors to consider Thailand's GDP along with situations of the US economy, which is still not recovering well, and public debts of European countries.
If there are more than 16 million tourists entering Thailand next year, the country's GDP should expand at 4-5 per cent, with exports expected to increase at 8-13 per cent and the inflation rate to rise to 3.5-4.5 per cent. (MCOT online news)
