Labor insiders tip August election

Kevin Rudd has left The Lodge for the last time as Labor insiders brace for an
August election which Julia Gillard hopes will deliver her the keys to the prime
minister's official residence.
On a cold Canberra night, Mr Rudd flew out of the national capital hoping for a warm
reception in his home city of Brisbane.
Five days after being ousted as prime minister by his Labor caucus, Mr Rudd took a
veiled swipe as those who deposed him in his first term.
"It is the people's house and we return it gratefully to the people," he told
reporters at The Lodge.
"For our family this has been a good place. It was here I think we had our first
welcome to country from Aboriginal Australia."
As Mr Rudd gathered his belongings, Ms Gillard who doesn't want to move into The
Lodge until she wins an election, held a three-hour cabinet meeting in Canberra.
The mining lobby has called for a quick resolution to the two-month political
standoff over the proposed 40 per cent resource super profits tax.
The federal government is expected to speak with mining executives on Wednesday and
Ms Gillard promised to be more conciliatory than Mr Rudd.
"I believe that in a spirit of goodwill and the showing of respect to each other, we
can get this sorted out," she told Adelaide radio 5AA.
The Minerals Council of Australia is also toning down its language, saying it had no
appetite for drawn-out negotiations.
But mining magnate Andrew Forrest is still playing hardball, demanding the
government increase its tax profit threshold from six per cent to 15 per cent.
The Fortescue Metals Group boss declared the original framework of the resources
super profits tax to be "dead and buried".
Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said no amount of negotiation would improve
the tax and it should be dropped.
"It's a big bad tax and it doesn't matter what you do to it, it will still be a big
bad tax," he told reporters at George Town in Tasmania.
"What she needs to do is just drop it. Drop it now, not this week, not next week,
but now."
As the government tries to forge a deal on the mining tax, speculation is growing
about the timing of an early election.
"The election will be held in the second half of the year which is the normal
cycle," Ms Gillard told DMG Radio Australia.
Opposition frontbencher Joe Hockey believes she will call an election this weekend
so voters go to the polls on August 7.
"I expect this weekend or the following weekend at the latest," he told ABC Radio.
Sportingbet has Saturday, August 28 as the favourite with the shortest priced odds
of $2.75.
One federal Labor MP agreed, saying a poll at the end of August gave Ms Gillard
enough time to boost her profile.
But he dismissed reports that candidates in regional Victoria had been told to
prepare for an early August election.
"It sounds to me like someone in the ALP head office said, 'You should get your
house in order'," the MP told AAP.
Another Labor insider said Ms Gillard would call a poll in late August, and opt for
the minimum four-week campaign to capitalise on her opinion poll lead over Mr
Abbott.
"If she's ahead in the polls, she wouldn't want him to catch up."
While Labor will be hoping the electorate keeps faith with it come polling day, Ms
Gillard was frank about her personal thoughts on the issue of religion.
In contrast to Mr Rudd, a committed Christian, Ms Gillard was upfront about her
atheist philosophy.
"I'm not going to pretend a faith I don't feel," she told ABC Radio.
"For people of faith I think the greatest compliment I could pay to them is to
respect their genuinely held beliefs, and not to engage in some pretence about
mine."