SCB chief economist expects economic growth above 4% in Q2

BANGKOK, June 4 (TNA) – Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 4 per cent in the second quarter of this year, boosted by the export surge, according to a leading economist.

Siam Commercial Bank Executive Vice President and Chief Economist Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput conceded the recent political disorders had adversely affected some industries, but the overall economy had not been impacted dramatically because its fundamentals remain strong and the fiscal position is still sound.

The economy in the first quarter of this year enjoyed an impressive growth of 12 per cent as exports, which are a main driving force for the economy, continued growing satisfactorily.

In the past, he said, only the political woes could not directly make the economy plunge into crisis.

He projected that Thailand's GDP in the second quarter of this year would expand more than 4 per cent from the same quarter last year.

It is unlikely the economy would contract in the second quarter because the exports, which account for up to 60 per cent of the GDP, continued growing satisfactorily at 27 per cent in April.

Tourism grew only 2 per cent in April and then shrank 20 per cent in May due to the political mayhem, but the shrinkage was less than expected.

He said the economy this year would grow 4.5-5.5 per cent this year as earlier forecast.

However, should the political situation escalate and turn violent again, it would badly affect economic growth in June. The number of tourists might shrink by over 70 per cent and exports might grow less than 15 per cent.

In this scenario, the economy in the second quarter is likely to grow less than 4 per cent, he said. (TNA)