Liberals circling Tasmanian election win

The Liberals were measuring up Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for political flak from the
Tasmanian election well before the polls had closed on Saturday.
Liberal Senator Eric Abetz, confident of a win over the incumbents, said Mr Rudd had
played a significant role in Labor's Tasmanian campaign.
"He put a lot of skin into this election and I've got a feeling he's going to get a
fair bit of that skin knocked off him today, but let's wait and see," he said.
Senator Abetz had arrived to vote at Blackmans Bay, near Hobart, just before Greens
leader Nick McKim's advertised arrival at the Franklin booth.
Although the Liberal powerbroker said the Tasmanian and South Australian elections
would be decided on state issues, he made a point of Mr Rudd's role in the Tasmanian
campaign.
"Kevin Rudd did front the TV advertisements in Tasmania and he will have to take
some of the responsibility, however the election falls," he said.
An upbeat Liberal leader Will Hodgman said after voting with his family at Margate,
south of Hobart, that he was feeling very confident about a strong showing for his
party.
"We've been positive, we've been constructive and I'm really proud that our campaign
has been about positive things and not about negativity, not about looking backwards
but looking forward," the Franklin MP told reporters.
Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett cast his vote with his family and his adoptive
parents in the Hobart suburb of Mount Nelson, saying he was optimistic about a good
result for Labor.
He said he'd continue to work to maintain the state's economic momentum, building
health services and hospitals and lifting education outcomes.
"That's what I'm intent on doing no matter what my job is after today," the Denison
MP told reporters.
Mr McKim shared an awkward handshake while exchanging brief pleasantries with
Senator Abetz as they crossed paths at the Blackmans Bay booth in the Franklin
electorate.
Mr McKim is another Franklin MP but he lives and votes in the Hobart seat of
Denison, where his partner, Greens MP Cassy O'Conner, tops the party ticket.
Asked if he "voted 1, Cassy O'Conner", Mr McKim baulked at a response before adding
"what I can say is that I'm a very disciplined Green voter".
Mr McKim said he was hopeful of a good result.
The Greens are poised to gain two seats, in the northwest seat of Braddon and in
Denison, taking them to six MPs in the 25-member assembly.
Friday's Newspoll in The Australian newspaper showed a 10-10-5 result, with the two
major parties split evenly, or a 10-9-6 hung parliament with the Liberals in front.
Only two per cent of voters surveyed in the Newspoll were "uncommitted" but the poll
differs from Tasmania's EMRS polling in that it allocates uncertain voters on the
basis that they are "leaning to" one party or the other, whereas EMRS lists them as
"undecided".
Two recent EMRS polls, the latest published last Sunday, show a similar hung
parliament scenario, but they included a 25 per cent undecided vote.
If the prevailing swing against Labor is indication of the direction of those
undecided votes, the Greens will benefit but the Liberals will just clinch 13 seats
for a majority, leaving Labor and the Greens with six seats each.
A majority result is paying $4 with Sportingbet Australia, while a hung parliament
is at the skinny odds of $1.22.
Labor and Liberal are level pegging at $1.90 each to provide the premier. However,
the momentum is with Liberal leader Will Hodgman taking the role, backed into $1.90
from $2.10.
The polls close at 6pm (AEDT).