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108619
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:03
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http://m.oananews.org//node/108619
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Political turmoil may cause Thai economic losses of Bt100-190 billion: Survey
BANGKOK, Feb 25 (TNA) – The Thai economy may lose as much as Bt100-190 billion if the political unrest worsens, according to an opinion survey of chambers of commerce nationwide.
Dr Thanawat Polvichai, director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting of University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), said in worst-case scenario, this year’s economy was estimated to grow only 2-3 per cent if internal politics continued to be unstable and political chaos such as occurred last April's riots which left two people dead.
The political turmoil would cause a loss of revenues in the tourism sector of around Bt50-100 billion, while public consumption and spending is likely to drop some Bt30-50 billion and investments may slow down about Bt20-40 billion. The worst economic loss in this case could possibly delay the process of resolving the Map Ta Phut industrial estate’s impasse until the end of this year.
For the best-case scenario, the forecast is that the Thai economy would grow 4-5 per cent on the condition that the internal politics was stable, the Map Ta Phut deadlock could be settled by mid-year, and the global economy could grow by 3.5 per cent.
However, the most likely case, which the UTCC centre believes would happen at about 65 per cent level of possibility, was that the economy will grow 3-4 per cent with political stability or a dissolution of the lower house of parliament followed by a general election.
Such growth would also depend on the solution to the industrial estate problem by the second half of this year, the world economy’s recovery and the success of the country's stimulus package known as Thai Khem Keng (Strong Thailand) scheme.
Dr Thanawat said any fallout effects from the Judgment Day on Friday on which the Supreme Court for Holders of Political Positions will hand down the verdict whether or not to confiscate the Bt76 billion frozen assets of convicted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is remain to be seen as this weekend is a three-day long public holiday which Buddhist public holiday falls on Monday.
“The effects from the verdict will become clear on Tuesday. If there’s chaos and instability, the country is likely to wait longer until August or September to see the economic recovery,” said the director of the UTCC poll centre.
Dr Thanawat pointed out the political crisis is still the main obstacle threatening the Thai economic recovery. The opinion survey on different regions also indicated that the ongoing political turbulence is the most negative factor that adversely affects the economic growth, followed by oil prices and lack of workers in the agricultural sector.
However, the study showed that the Thai economy in the forth quarter of 2009 recovered in all regions. The central region saw the highest growth of 7.8 per cent, followed by Bangkok at 5.4 per cent. The southern region saw an improvement of 4.5 per cent, the Northeast 4.4 per cent and the North 4.1 per cent. The overall recovery was due to the government’s effective measures to help improve the economy, good crop prices and a large number of tourists
coming in to the country in 2009’s last quarter. (TNA)
Dr Thanawat Polvichai, director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting of University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), said in worst-case scenario, this year’s economy was estimated to grow only 2-3 per cent if internal politics continued to be unstable and political chaos such as occurred last April's riots which left two people dead.
The political turmoil would cause a loss of revenues in the tourism sector of around Bt50-100 billion, while public consumption and spending is likely to drop some Bt30-50 billion and investments may slow down about Bt20-40 billion. The worst economic loss in this case could possibly delay the process of resolving the Map Ta Phut industrial estate’s impasse until the end of this year.
For the best-case scenario, the forecast is that the Thai economy would grow 4-5 per cent on the condition that the internal politics was stable, the Map Ta Phut deadlock could be settled by mid-year, and the global economy could grow by 3.5 per cent.
However, the most likely case, which the UTCC centre believes would happen at about 65 per cent level of possibility, was that the economy will grow 3-4 per cent with political stability or a dissolution of the lower house of parliament followed by a general election.
Such growth would also depend on the solution to the industrial estate problem by the second half of this year, the world economy’s recovery and the success of the country's stimulus package known as Thai Khem Keng (Strong Thailand) scheme.
Dr Thanawat said any fallout effects from the Judgment Day on Friday on which the Supreme Court for Holders of Political Positions will hand down the verdict whether or not to confiscate the Bt76 billion frozen assets of convicted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is remain to be seen as this weekend is a three-day long public holiday which Buddhist public holiday falls on Monday.
“The effects from the verdict will become clear on Tuesday. If there’s chaos and instability, the country is likely to wait longer until August or September to see the economic recovery,” said the director of the UTCC poll centre.
Dr Thanawat pointed out the political crisis is still the main obstacle threatening the Thai economic recovery. The opinion survey on different regions also indicated that the ongoing political turbulence is the most negative factor that adversely affects the economic growth, followed by oil prices and lack of workers in the agricultural sector.
However, the study showed that the Thai economy in the forth quarter of 2009 recovered in all regions. The central region saw the highest growth of 7.8 per cent, followed by Bangkok at 5.4 per cent. The southern region saw an improvement of 4.5 per cent, the Northeast 4.4 per cent and the North 4.1 per cent. The overall recovery was due to the government’s effective measures to help improve the economy, good crop prices and a large number of tourists
coming in to the country in 2009’s last quarter. (TNA)
