Crisis Group: The West resistant to idea of war against Iran

Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 24 / Trend / The U.S. appears to be seriously resistant to the idea of yet another Middle East war, this time with Iran, while keeping all options on the table, according to the latest International Crisis Group Middle East and Europe Report. Few still believe Tehran's motivations are purely innocent, but whereas some are convinced it is intent on building a bomb, others hold the view that it wishes to become a "threshold state" - one with breakout capacity, even if it does not plan to act on it. While it is widely acknowledged in the West that war could have devastating consequences, and while U.S. and European efforts to restrain Israel are welcome, their current approach - ever-tightening economic sanctions designed to make Tehran bend - has almost no chance of producing an Iranian climb­down anytime soon, the report says. Israelis speak of a "zone of immunity", namely the point after which nothing could be done to halt Iran's advance because its facilities would be impervious to military attack, and say that point is only months away. Again, others - Americans in particular - dispute this; the divergence reflects different military capacities, the report says. Crisis Group further notes that Israelis, not for the first time, could be exaggerating the threat and its imminence, a reflection of their intense fear of a regime that has brazenly proclaimed its unending hostility. But they almost certainly are right in one respect: that sanctions could work and nonetheless fail, inflicting harsh economic pain yet unable to produce a genuine policy change. There is no evidence that Iran's leadership has succumbed or will succumb to economic hardship; the outlook of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rests on the core principle that yielding to pressure only invites more. Seen through the regime's eyes, such apparent stubbornness is easy to understand. The measures taken by its foes - including attacks on its territory, physical and cyber sabotage, U.S. bolstering of the military arsenals of its Gulf enemies and, perhaps most damaging, economic warfare - can only mean one thing: that Washington and its allies are dead set on toppling it. Iran could lash out as its provocative actions, could trigger retaliatory steps; the situation could well veer out of control, particularly in the absence of any meaningful channel of communication. Israel's and the West's clocks might not be synchronised: the West's sanctions timetable extends beyond the point when Iran will have entered Jerusalem's notional zone of immunity, and Israel might not have the patience to stand still. Enter Turkey The report also mentiones Turkey's approach to the neighboring Iran. Among countries uneasy with this approach, Turkey notably has stood for something different. It is highly sceptical about sanctions and rules out any military action, says the report. Ankara is not a central player, and its opposition to broad sanctions and support of dialogue are not dissimilar to the views of key actors such as Russia and China. But Turkey knows Iran well - an outgrowth of its long, complex relationship with a powerful neighbour. As a non-traditional power, anchored in Western institutions but part of the Muslim world, it can play to Tehran's rejection of a two-tiered world order. According to the report, Turkey, being a relatively newcomer to the nuclear issue, Turkey also has useful experience. In 2010, together with Brazil - another rising new power - it engaged in intensive talks with Iranian officials and, much to the West's surprise, reached a deal on the Tehran Research Reactor. Iran would deposit 1,200kg of low enriched uranium (LEU) in Turkey and, in return, would receive 120kg of 20 per cent enriched fuel for its reactor. This is not to say that Turkey is amenable to a nuclear-armed Iran. But it is far more sympathetic to the view that the West cannot dictate who can have a nuclear capacity and who cannot; is less alarmist when it comes to the status of Iran's program; and believes that the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is both distant and unsure. Today, with news that Iran has responded to the P5+1's offer of talks, a new opportunity for diplomacy might have arisen. It should not be squandered. That means breaking with the pattern of the past: tough sanctions interrupted by episodic, fleeting meetings with Iran which, when they fail to produce the desired Iranian concession, are followed by ratcheted-up economic penalties. Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at agency@trend.az