Battle takes shape over ETS cost

A battle is looming over the cost of emissions trading as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
challenged the opposition to reveal the dollar hit of their proposed amendments.
The opposition on Sunday proposed sweeping, business-friendly changes to the
government's ETS.
High-level negotiations between the major parties began on Monday, with both parties
promising to do their best.
But Mr Rudd hinted that the biggest issue could be cost.
"We look forward also to receiving from the opposition their detailed costings of
the amendments they have put forward," he told parliament's question time.
Cost is a crucial issue because the government says it will only accept amendments
which are economically responsible.
If the opposition's amendments do not add up, or result in a hit on the budget, or
cannot meet greenhouse gas targets, then there could be a problem.
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull told Fairfax radio the amendments would cost the
economy less.
"Our proposals are all very affordable because the different approach we take to
electricity prices will actually have a much lesser cost to the economy overall," he
said.
A spokesman for Mr Turnbull later said the coalition did have costings of its
amendments, which it would share with the government. He declined to give any
figures to AAP.
Detailed costings of the amendments would involve a substantial economic modelling
exercise which the opposition may not have the resources to undertake.
The coalition's amendments would go more easily on industries and businesses,
handing out more free permits and compensation.
Coal-fired power plants, coal mining companies and farmers would pay significantly
less to pollute.
Mr Turnbull says this would protect jobs and ensure a smoother transition to a
low-carbon economy.
But the Australian Conservation Foundation says it means an extra $8.9 billion in
compensation over the first five years of the scheme.
And that would mean the scheme would start to cost the government money - about $400
million a year. The government's scheme does not take money out of the budget.
Conservation groups say the coalition's amendments take the scheme backwards and are
bad for the environment.
But industry groups have welcomed the changes, which they say would save jobs.
Mr Rudd outlined the six-week timetable he has set to pass the ETS. The draft laws
will be tabled in the lower house on Thursday and debated next week.
A vote is to be held in the week beginning November 16. The bill would then go
straight to the Senate, to be voted on in the week beginning November 23.
The government has offered to hold extra sitting weeks this year if needed, to bring
the matter to a vote.
The government wants a vote before UN climate talks in Copenhagen begin on December
7. The opposition would prefer to wait until after Copenhagen.
Even if negotiations go well, and the major parties strike a deal to pass the ETS,
the Nationals and some rebel Liberals say they will vote against the scheme.
Mr Turnbull said that was allowed.
"Well I wouldn't say I'm happy but it is a fact of life," he told ABC Radio about
the prospect of coalition MPs crossing the floor.