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193509
Thu, 07/07/2011 - 13:52
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http://m.oananews.org//node/193509
The shortlink copeid
PM hails jump in full-time work
SYDNEY (AAP) - July 07 - Interest rates are still more likely to rise than fall after new data showed the largest monthly jump in full-time work since before the depths of the global financial crisis and a jobless rate still under five per cent.
But the Reserve Bank is still some way off from pulling the trigger on rates, unless inflation figures this month show a strong rise in prices, economists say.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed the total number of people employed in June rose by 23,400, larger than the 15,000 expected by economists.
A 59,000 surge in full-time workers, the biggest rise since mid-2008, was offset by a fall in part-time jobs.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard described the jump in full-time employment as "fantastic".
"We want people to have the benefit and dignity of work," Ms Gillard told a rowdy and final parliamentary question time before the winter recess.
The nationwide jobless rate remained at 4.9 per cent for the second month in a row, as expected, although there were notable differences between the states and territories.
In the country's second-largest state, Victoria, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 per cent in June from 5.1 per cent previously, while in sharp contrast the rate spiked to 5.2 per cent from 4.9 per cent in NSW.
Jobs Minister Chris Evans said the 222,000 jobs created in the past year, 90 per cent of which are full-time, was an "outstanding result".
"ABS jobs figures reveal a significant rebound in the employment market and confirm the underlying strength of our economy," Senator Evans said in a statement.
Revisions to the data showed that the jobless rate did briefly fall to 4.8 per cent in April, its lowest level for about two-and-a-half years.
But the employment outcome in May was also downgraded to a fall of 500 jobs, from an originally reported 7800 increase.
There has been a significant slowdown in employment growth since the turn of the year.
The trend in employment growth has slowed to an average 8000 per month in the first half of this year compared with some 30,000 in the last six months of 2010.
Macquarie Research economist Ben Dinte said leading employment indicators pointed to further moderation in the coming months.
"The softening in business confidence has led to a fall in hiring intentions ... this has coincided with a weakening in job vacancies, with newspaper job ads declining in six of the past seven months and growth in internet job ads slowing," Mr Dinte said.
Still, Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said an unemployment rate under five per cent still showed that the labour market was tight.
"That would normally preclude any possibility of the (Reserve Bank) cutting the cash rate, which the market has factored in the near term," Mr Roberts said.
"This unusual market pricing appears to be a function of concern about the international economy."
Financial markets, while winding back the chances of a rate cut, were still factoring in around a 40 per cent chance of a cut in the cash rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent in December.
But the Reserve Bank is still some way off from pulling the trigger on rates, unless inflation figures this month show a strong rise in prices, economists say.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed the total number of people employed in June rose by 23,400, larger than the 15,000 expected by economists.
A 59,000 surge in full-time workers, the biggest rise since mid-2008, was offset by a fall in part-time jobs.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard described the jump in full-time employment as "fantastic".
"We want people to have the benefit and dignity of work," Ms Gillard told a rowdy and final parliamentary question time before the winter recess.
The nationwide jobless rate remained at 4.9 per cent for the second month in a row, as expected, although there were notable differences between the states and territories.
In the country's second-largest state, Victoria, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 per cent in June from 5.1 per cent previously, while in sharp contrast the rate spiked to 5.2 per cent from 4.9 per cent in NSW.
Jobs Minister Chris Evans said the 222,000 jobs created in the past year, 90 per cent of which are full-time, was an "outstanding result".
"ABS jobs figures reveal a significant rebound in the employment market and confirm the underlying strength of our economy," Senator Evans said in a statement.
Revisions to the data showed that the jobless rate did briefly fall to 4.8 per cent in April, its lowest level for about two-and-a-half years.
But the employment outcome in May was also downgraded to a fall of 500 jobs, from an originally reported 7800 increase.
There has been a significant slowdown in employment growth since the turn of the year.
The trend in employment growth has slowed to an average 8000 per month in the first half of this year compared with some 30,000 in the last six months of 2010.
Macquarie Research economist Ben Dinte said leading employment indicators pointed to further moderation in the coming months.
"The softening in business confidence has led to a fall in hiring intentions ... this has coincided with a weakening in job vacancies, with newspaper job ads declining in six of the past seven months and growth in internet job ads slowing," Mr Dinte said.
Still, Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said an unemployment rate under five per cent still showed that the labour market was tight.
"That would normally preclude any possibility of the (Reserve Bank) cutting the cash rate, which the market has factored in the near term," Mr Roberts said.
"This unusual market pricing appears to be a function of concern about the international economy."
Financial markets, while winding back the chances of a rate cut, were still factoring in around a 40 per cent chance of a cut in the cash rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent in December.
