ID :
175344
Thu, 04/14/2011 - 07:03
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/175344
The shortlink copeid
March 11 Quake Could Have Been "Foreseen": Seismologist
Tokyo, April 14 (Jiji Press)--University of Tokyo seismologist Robert Geller on Thursday claimed that the March 11 earthquake could have been "foreseen."
The quake "could easily have been 'foreseen' in a general way, although not of course its particular time, epicenter or magnitude," if global seismicity and historical record for the Tohoku northeastern Japan region hit by the temblor had been used as the basis for estimating seismic hazards, Prof. Geller said.
"Countermeasures for dealing with such events could and should have been incorporated in the initial design of the Fukushima nuclear power plants," he said in an article published on the online version of the British science journal Nature.
Since 1979, quakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned "a relatively low probability" in hazard maps based on forecasts by the Japanese government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, according to the article.
This suggests the hazard maps and the methods used to produce them "are flawed and should be discarded," Geller said.
Geller went on to note that in the past 100 years, five earthquakes of magnitude 9 or greater, including the March 11 one, happened in places where the edge of a tectonic plate slides below that of another.
He pointed out that the 869 Jogan earthquake and the 1896 Sanriku earthquake unleashed massive tsunami waves that hit the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region.
Geller is a critic of the Japanese government's earthquake prediction system that focuses heavily on a "Tokai earthquake" that may hit central Japan.
In the article, he said, "All of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographical areas."
The quake "could easily have been 'foreseen' in a general way, although not of course its particular time, epicenter or magnitude," if global seismicity and historical record for the Tohoku northeastern Japan region hit by the temblor had been used as the basis for estimating seismic hazards, Prof. Geller said.
"Countermeasures for dealing with such events could and should have been incorporated in the initial design of the Fukushima nuclear power plants," he said in an article published on the online version of the British science journal Nature.
Since 1979, quakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned "a relatively low probability" in hazard maps based on forecasts by the Japanese government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, according to the article.
This suggests the hazard maps and the methods used to produce them "are flawed and should be discarded," Geller said.
Geller went on to note that in the past 100 years, five earthquakes of magnitude 9 or greater, including the March 11 one, happened in places where the edge of a tectonic plate slides below that of another.
He pointed out that the 869 Jogan earthquake and the 1896 Sanriku earthquake unleashed massive tsunami waves that hit the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region.
Geller is a critic of the Japanese government's earthquake prediction system that focuses heavily on a "Tokai earthquake" that may hit central Japan.
In the article, he said, "All of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographical areas."
