ID :
122707
Tue, 05/18/2010 - 11:36
Auther :
Shortlink :
http://m.oananews.org//node/122707
The shortlink copeid
FPO sees economy growing at least 4% despite political violence
BANGKOK, May 18 (TNA) – The Thai economy is likely to grow at least 4 per cent this year despite the political upheaval, boosted by the sound expansion of exports, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
Director-General Sathit Rangkasiri revealed the economic growth projection was made on an assumption that the political turmoil would not escalate to such an extent that airports or ports are closed because it could adversely affect transport and exports.
In addition, it needs to be monitored how much the debt crisis in Europe would affect exports.
“In the worst-case scenario, I believe the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 4 per cent unless airports or ports are sealed off, because they help promote exports,” he said.
He admitted the current political crisis might cut this year’s GDP growth by around 0.3-0.4 per cent to 4.1-4.2 per cent, depending on how much exports could offset the anticipated shortfall in revenues earned from tourism and hotel businesses affected by the political turmoil.
Last March, FPO forecast the Thai economy would expand at an average of 4.5 per cent with a range of 4-5 per cent, which is higher than 3.5 per cent projected earlier.
The growth was driven by increased exports and accelerated local consumption, he said, adding that FPO expected the export value this year to grow 18 per cent.
The political factor would reduce the economic growth by 0.2-1.8 per cent, depending on whether the political crisis drags on.
Since early this year, he said, exports had continued growing satisfactorily in tandem with the global economic recovery.
The political crisis had not yet affected exports greatly because they involve the advance placement of orders for products. He said the current political violence would begin to have an impact on
the exports in the next three to four months.
The deputy BoT chief added that the debt crisis in Greece needed to be monitored as to how much it would spill into other countries such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.
Should the crisis occur only in Greece, it would not affect Thailand’s exports, but if it escalates and spills into other countries, it would have adverse impacts on exports. (TNA)
Director-General Sathit Rangkasiri revealed the economic growth projection was made on an assumption that the political turmoil would not escalate to such an extent that airports or ports are closed because it could adversely affect transport and exports.
In addition, it needs to be monitored how much the debt crisis in Europe would affect exports.
“In the worst-case scenario, I believe the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 4 per cent unless airports or ports are sealed off, because they help promote exports,” he said.
He admitted the current political crisis might cut this year’s GDP growth by around 0.3-0.4 per cent to 4.1-4.2 per cent, depending on how much exports could offset the anticipated shortfall in revenues earned from tourism and hotel businesses affected by the political turmoil.
Last March, FPO forecast the Thai economy would expand at an average of 4.5 per cent with a range of 4-5 per cent, which is higher than 3.5 per cent projected earlier.
The growth was driven by increased exports and accelerated local consumption, he said, adding that FPO expected the export value this year to grow 18 per cent.
The political factor would reduce the economic growth by 0.2-1.8 per cent, depending on whether the political crisis drags on.
Since early this year, he said, exports had continued growing satisfactorily in tandem with the global economic recovery.
The political crisis had not yet affected exports greatly because they involve the advance placement of orders for products. He said the current political violence would begin to have an impact on
the exports in the next three to four months.
The deputy BoT chief added that the debt crisis in Greece needed to be monitored as to how much it would spill into other countries such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.
Should the crisis occur only in Greece, it would not affect Thailand’s exports, but if it escalates and spills into other countries, it would have adverse impacts on exports. (TNA)
